Sousa won their only previous meeting. That was in a Davis Cup tie in Portugal in March 2016. He won in straight sets on an indoor hard court.
Stronger recent results from Melzer on clay. He has won 8 of his last 10. He reached a final and semi final in his last 2 clay tournaments. His form dipped a little a few weeks ago but he seems to be back near his best.
Sousa made the quarter finals last week in Gstaad. He has played well this week and has only been broken once in each round. He beat Lorenzi in his last match. He has lost the opening set in a tie break in both his matches.
Some value on Melzer to take at least a set. Lay Sousa below 1.50 in the early games.