Djokovic has won 22 of their 24 previous matches. He has won their last 9. On hard courts Berdych has taken 3 sets in 10 matches.
Djokovic has won the title in Miami in 4 of the last 5 seasons. He has not dropped a set so far but in the last round he faced a massive 15 break points. Thiem only managed to take one of them.
Berdych’s second serve was his weak spot against Gasquet. Both players were broken 3 times and both won 96 points. Berdych won it with a late break in the third set.
I don’t think Berdych really believes he can beat Djokovic. Hopefully he can put as much pressure on him as Thiem did and can hold his serve together to take the first set in a tie break. No value on Djokovic unless that happens.
We could lay Djokovic at 1.10 for a cheapish lay.