Carreno Busta will be competitive but Anderson will edge it
Due to start at 20:00
Carreno Busta 2.94, Anderson 1.50
Anderson has won all 5 of their previous meetings. They last played in Indian Wells this month. Anderson won in a third set tie break. Their last 4 matches were on hard courts.
Overall results are better for Anderson in the last 12 months and also in 2018. Hard court results favour Anderson in last year but this season Carreno Busta has also performed well and his win loss ratio is a little higher, as is his ROI.
Stats for the tournament show they have both served well with 87%/88% of service games held. Return stats strongly favour Carreno Busta. Istomin was poor in Carreno Busta’s first match and won just 1 game. Johnson was beaten in 2 close sets and I would have expected Verdasco to perform better than he did in the last round. Verdasco won just 3 games.
Anderson’s opponents have played better. Both Tiafoe and Khachanov have shown strong form this year. Anderson has been broken 4 times in his 3 matches.
I see some value on Carreno Busta and think he can take this to 3 sets. I have to favour Anderson to get the win. Back Anderson above 1.85.
Update: Carreno Busta took the first set and Anderson took the second with a late break after he had broken at the start of the set but was immediately broken back. The third set was very tight and went to a tie break. Anderson was 3 times a mini break ahead and had a match point on his own serve at 6-5. He didn’t win another point.
Carreno Busta won 6-4, 5-7, 7-6.
Perfect example of why straight bets on tennis will drive you crazy!