Both players have strong hard court results. Zverev has beaten tougher opponents.
Due to start at Midnight
Carreno Busta 3.20, Zverev 1.44
This will be the first time they have played.
Zverev has stronger results in the last 12 months. He has beaten some in form opponents so far. He was broken once in the last 2 matches. Medvedev took him to a third set tie break in the second round. David Ferrer gave him his toughest test of the tournament. Ferrer won the opening set and the match was decided by a tight third set. Kyrgios and Coric both played some good tennis but were beaten in straight sets.
Carreno Busta has also played extremely well on hard courts in 2018. He put Anderson under a lot of pressure in the last round. Anderson had served well in previous rounds but Carreno Busta created 10 break chances, taking 3 of them.
Stats for the tournament favour Carreno Busta. We have some value on him. The sets should be very tight with at least 1 tie break. I am favouring Zverev to win a very close match. Carreno Busta has played the big points well so far in the tournament. I will wait for 1.75 on Zverev.
Update: No breaks in the first set. Carreno Busta took a 3-0 lead in the tie break but Zverev came back to win.
Zverev won 7-6, 6-2