Federer leads their previous meetings 11-6. Their last match was in August 2014 and Tsonga won in straight sets on a hard court. They are 1-1 in their last 2 clay matches.
Federer has looked comfortable so far. He has been broken once in 2 matches. This is his first tournament since his Australian Open semi final so we should bear in mind that match fitness could be a small issue if this turns into a real battle.
Tsonga needed a win to find his timing on the clay. Carreno Busta took him to 2 tie breaks and had 9 break points. He was broken twice. Tsonga looked more solid against Pouille and saved all 3 of his break points.
I won’t be backing Federer at 1.40 but will back him if he gets broken early. I can see the sets being close. It should be a good atmosphere and I expect a great match.