Mathieu has won both their previous meetings. They last met in July 2016 in Gstaad. He won in straight sets on clay. He also won on an indoor hard court in Basel in October 2012. He won that in straight sets too.
They have both won 3 of their last 10 matches but Laaksonen has stronger overall results this season. Over the last 12 months indoors Mathieu won 9 of 19 (47%) and Laaksonen won 14 of 20 (70%).
Mathieu has not won a main draw match since the clay Challenger in June. His last indoor tournament was also a Challenger in February. He reached the semi finals there.
Laaksonen has struggled recently with injury and has retired a couple of times in recent weeks. He played in the Davis Cup at the weekend and seemed ok although hard courts are not his favourite surface.
The price looks about right. I have to favour Laaksonen though the match will be tight. Back him above 2.20.
Update: Laaksonen won 7-5, 6-2.