Krajinovic 2.94, Sock 1.50
Sock won their only previous meeting which was in a Challenger in Savannah, USA in April 2014. He won on clay in 3 sets.
Overall results are stronger for Krajinovic this year. He has won 78% of his matches in 2017.
Sock had a great start to the year and then hit a bad run of results. Last month he started to play better tennis again and reached 2 quarter finals in Stockholm and Basel. Both tournaments were played on indoor hard courts.
Krajinovic has played above his average level this week. A lot of his tennis is played on the Challenger tour so wins on that tour have a little less value ( over the season) to those on the main tour. This week though has been against top players. He has come through the qualifying rounds. In the main draw he beat Sugita and Querrey who have performed well this season. He then beat Mahut who had served well earlier in the tournament. He got a lucky break when Nadal withdrew from their quarter final but he took full advantage of that by beating last year’s finalist Isner in a third set tie break.
Stats for just this week actually favour Krajinovic. This is his first ATP final and so is a big deal for him. He hasn’t displayed many signs of nerves so far but the chance of his first main tour title has to have an affect on him. He has been playing well enough for there to be value on him and I think he takes a set.
Sock has been unpredictable this year. He has been in 3 finals in 2017. The only one he lost was the exhibition Hopman Cup which he lost in a 3rd set tie break to Gasquet. Those finals were in January and February.
I give the edge to Sock but he will have to work very hard. We won’t see many breaks unless one of them has a nightmare on serve. Backing servers is an option. Don’t back Sock below 1.80
Update: Sock won 5-7, 6-4, 6-1. He was broken first in set 1 but broke back immediately. He was broken again and lost the set. He went a double break up in the second set. He lost one of the breaks but took the set. He then ran away with the deciding set.