ATP Rome Masters, Final: Djokovic v Nadal

Due to start at 3 pm

Djokovic 2.68, Nadal 1.59

Djokovic leads their previous matches 28-25. Their most recent meeting was in the final of the Australian Open in January. Djokovic won on a hard court in straight sets.  Nadal won their last 2 clay matches. Overall results are a little better for Djokovic in the last 12 months and also in 2019. Both have excellent clay records in last 12 months. This season Nadal has won 13 of 16 matches. Djokovic won 11 of 12.

Djokovic was very comfortable in his first 2 matches this week but came under a lot of pressure from Del Potro in the quarter final. Del Potro took the opening set and set two went to a tie break. Djokovic saved 2 match points in the tie break and won the set.  A single break in the third set was enough for him to take the match.  He also needed 3 sets against Schwartzman in the semi final.


Nadal has not lost a set so far. Verdasco had 3 break points at 4-4 in the first set of their quarter final match but couldn’t take them and didn’t win another game in the match.  Tsitsipas kept both the sets tight in the semi final. Nadal took each set with a single break of serve.

Stats for the tournament favour Nadal. Djokovic usually steps up his game against Nadal but I still have to favour Nadal to win. He was very disappointing in the Australian Open final and will be out for revenge today. We have a good chance of 3 seeing sets.

Back Nadal around 1.90.


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4 thoughts on “ATP Rome Masters, Final: Djokovic v Nadal”

  1. blank

    You suggest backing Nadal at 1.9 (now at 1.55 aprox). At 1.9 (=53%) the odds for Djokovic should be in the range 2.15-2.35 approx (47% = 2.12)

    If they are now (45 mins before the match) at 2.96, wouldn’t it be interesting to back Djokovic and expect his odds to go down? I mean, wouldn’t it be a value bet (you give him 47% chances and the betting exchanges only 34%)??

    If it is a silly question, then forget it!


    1. blank

      Hi Alf,
      Not a silly question. As is usually the case in this sort of price range the favourite has been pushed too low and pre match value is on Djokovic.
      It is certainly an option to Back Djokovic at the start and get out around 2.10

  2. blank

    Thanks for the reply!!

    I’ve followed the match and there was only two moments in which the odds of Djokovic were below the initial odds of 2.96:
    – After the first point (15-0 for him // Odds at 2.5) (after that he lost some points and then the first serve of the match)
    – After winning the second set before starting to serve in the third (2.55) (when he lost his serve in the first game)

    Only a genius (or someone with a crystal ball) could have predicted that there were only two chances (a few seconds) to place a lay bet and trade out for a profit.

    Thanks once again!

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