Nadal 1.72, Federer 2.36
Nadal leads their previous matches 25-14. The last time they met was in Miami in March. Federer won on a hard court in straight sets having done the same in Indian Wells 2 weeks before that. Federer has won their last 4 meetings and all 3 of their 2017 matches. All 3 were on hard courts.
Nadal has won 86% of his matches this year and Federer won 90%. They have both won 9 of their last 10. Federer also has a slight edge if we just look at hard court results. Stats for this week give Nadal a slight edge.
Federer’s quarter final with Richard Gasquet was more competitive than many expected. Gasquet had his chances but Federer was only broken once in his 7-4, 6-4 win. He lost the opening set to Del Potro in the semi final but fought back well to take the next 2 sets 6-3, 6-3. He faced a single break point in that match.
Nadal came close to losing the opening set in his semi final with Cilic. Cilic had 3 set points when Nadal served at 4-5. Nadal held and then broke serve and served out for 7-5.
We have value on Federer as underdog. It is hard to see this not going to 3 sets. Lay Nadal around 1.55.