Dolgopolov 2.30, Goffin 1.74
Dolgopolov has won both their previous matches. They last met at the US Open in 2013 and he won in straight sets. He was also a straight sets winner on clay in a Challenger in Marrakech in 2012.
Goffin has better hard court results for the year with 70% of matches won ( Dolgopolov won 60%) but recent form favours Dolgopolov. He has won 9 of his last 10. He beat in form Dzumhur in the last round though I think Dzumhur was tiring after a great run of form himself.
Goffin has lost just 1 set this week which was in the semi final with Laaksonen. He took a tight opening set in a tie break but a late break in the second set was enough to level the match for the Swiss player. Breaks of serve at the start and at the end of the deciding set gave Goffin the win.
I think this will be close and 3 sets are likely. Both have held serve around 95% this week. Dolg has been better on return of serve. Value on him to take at least a set and I favour him for the win.
Lay Goffin below 1.50
Update:Goffin won 6-4, 6-7, 6-3.
Dolgopolov took a 5-1 lead in set 2 but Goffin recovered to take it to a tie break. Excellent trading opportunities as we can see from Goffin’s graph (taken after set 2)