Rublev 1.54, Chardy 2.78
Rublev has won all 3 of their previous matches. They last met in March last year in a hard court Challenger tournament. Rublev won in 2 close sets. Their other two matches were indoors. Both were also in Challenger events.In January 2017 he won in 2 tight sets and in October 2016 Chardy took it to a deciding set.
Rublev played a very solid match to beat Garcia Lopez in straight sets in the last round. He was only broken once and won 83% of his first serve points. Garcia Lopez struggled to find the court with his first serve and managed it just 47% of the time. He also hit 10 double faults. Rublev broke his serve 3 times from 8 break chances.
Chardy was struggling a little in the last round against Tsitsipas. He lost a very competitive first set to a late break which gave Tsitsipas the set 6-4. In in the 2nd set Chardy had been the only player to face break points until at 5-5 he found a break to love. He served out the next service gave for 7-5. The deciding set was again close and there had been no break points until Chardy broke for a 5-4 lead and a chance to serve for the match. He could not close out the match and was broken but immediately broke again and this time he completed the job easily. Both players served well and Chardy was broken just twice.
Some value on Chardy to take a set but I favour Rublev to win. Back Rublev if he gets broken early or loses set 1.