Monfils leads their previous matches 2-1. Their last meeting was in March 2016. Monfils won in straight sets on a hard court in Indian Wells. Carreno Busta won on clay in 2014.
When Monfils came back from injury for Wimbledon and lost to Chardy in 5 sets he took another 3 weeks off. When he returned in Washington we didn’t expect too much from him but he won the title! He followed up by reaching the semis in Toronto and quarter finals in Rio. His body HAS to be hurting. he has also had to deal with choking away several match points against Nishikori last week.
Carreno Busta has been struggling since the clay season ended. From nowhere he played well last week in Mexico reaching the semi finals and losing to Lopez in 3 sets.
I think a small lay on Monfils is worth a go. He starts around 1.24.