ATP Wimbledon, Men’s Final: Djokovic v Federer

Due to start at 2 pm.

Djokovic 1.58, Federer 2.68

Djokovic leads their previous matches 27-22. Their last meeting was in Paris on an indoor hard court.  Djokovic won in a 3rd set tie break. He has won their last 3 matches and 5 of their last 6.

They last played on grass at Wimbledon in 2015, Djokovic won in 4 sets. They have met 3 times on grass. All of them were at Wimbledon. Both Djokovic’s wins were in finals and Federer’s win was in the semi final in 2012.

Overall results are pretty even in the last 12 months and in 2019. Both players have superb results on grass. Of their last 50 on this surface Djokovic won 46 and Federer won 44. Stats for the tournament are even but Federer’s opponents have held serve more often.

Djokovic has lost just 2 sets so far. That is quite unusual for him in slams. He has usually had a 5 setter at this stage. He has made a couple of slow starts but once he has got his serve going he has been tough to break down.

 

Federer has only lost 3 sets in the tournament. Nishikori broke him at the start of their quarter final and Federer wasn’t able to recover but fought back well to win in 4 sets.  He was very impressive in the semi final. He took the opening set in a tie break but struggled on serve in the next set. After that he gave very little away on his serve and Nadal could find a way to break him.

Federer needs his serve to be at its very best. Anything less will not be good enough. Djokovic will prefer long rallies. When Federer is playing his best tennis the points are quite short. Djokovic more than any of the top players lifts his game a level or 2 for the really big occasions. Federer lifted his level against Nadal and it will be tough to do that again over 5 sets with Djokovic. This will be 4 or 5 sets so we have some value on Federer. Nadal was disappointing against Federer and Serena was a no show in the women’s final so I am hoping Djokovic isn’t a no show today.

Lay Djokovic if he breaks first. Back him if Federer gets the first break or wins set 1. Laying the set 1 winner is a good option. The longer the match goes on, the more I favour Djokovic to defend his title.

Update: Djokovic won 7-6, 1-6, 7-6, 4-6, 13-12

 

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