ATP World Finals – Semi Final Day

14:00 – Nadal v Murray

Rankings are 1 and 5. Head to heads are 8-4 to Nadal.

Nadal needed a bad umpire call to get his blood pumping against Berdych. He won’t need any extra motivation against Murray as the Scot won their last match in August 2010.

Murray came through the round robin stages with just one defeat ( to Federer). He has played some great tennis at times this week but Fed made him look very ordinary. Nadal will be looking to do the same.

Murray’s recent record against Nadal is pretty good  on hard courts but as this court is playing very slow it has to favour the Spaniard. Murray will have to serve superbly for the whole match and he just doesn’t seem capable of doing so. It has to be said that he rarely performs well against the very top players in the big events.

Murray has  a chance of having the crowd on his side today as he is the underdog. The British public love to support the guy who is getting his arse kicked. They are seen as heroes if they ” tried really hard”. No wonder we produce so many mediocre sportsmen and women.

I hope Murray can make a game of it but I think Nadal will have his revenge. He also needs to win the title to wipe out the memory of losing every match here last year.

Trading wise, Nadal’s price is at 1.62 on Betfair. I’d recommend backing Nadal from the start with half stakes and waiting before putting the rest on. We could see a higher price as Murray will look to start fast. If Murray goes a break down I’m not sure he has the belief to come back.

Update: Great match and a good performance from Murray.

Nadal took the first set on a tie break and I thought it was all over. but Murray came back and played some very aggressive tennis. He got an early break and then took the set with another break of Nadal’s serve.

In the decider it was Nadal who got the early break and served for the match at 5-4 but Murray fought back and took it to a tiebreak.

Murray was soon 2 mini breaks up and the match looked to be going to the Scot. However it was Nadal’s turn to fight back which he did to take the match.

Nadal won 7-6, 3-6, 7-6.



20:00 – Djokovic v Federer

Rankings are 3 and 2. Head to heads are 12-6 to Federer. Its 3-1 to Fed in 2010.

Federer looks like a man on a mission. Probably his biggest threat in the round robin matches was seen as being Murray and he made him look very average.

Djokovic hasn’t  had too many  problems to get to this stage. Issues with his contact lenses distracted him from the task against Nadal but Berdych and Roddick put up little resistance.

There’s a lot of talk about Djokovic being more interested in the Davis Cup Final but he will be putting everything into this match.

Having said that when Federer is in the mood that he appears to be in this week I don’t give anyone much chance against him.

I expect it to be a bit of a scrap but Federer will find a way, perhaps in 3 sets but more likely in 2.

Fed is currently 1.43 on Betfair. Back with half stake from the start and hope for a better price at which to add the other half.

    Trading Guide

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