ATP World Tour Finals – Friday

14:00 – Nadal v Berdych

Rankings are 1 and 6. Head to heads are 8-3 to Nadal. He has won their last 7 matches.

Nadal’s having a much better time than he had here last year. 2 wins out of 2 and its hard to doubt he will make it 3 from 3 today. Berdych is the weaker member of the group despite his surprise win over Roddick and Nadal’s price of 1.26 is about right.

Federer has reached the semi finals undefeated and ultra competitive Nadal will be going all out to do the same. I don’t see this being a close match.

If Berdych is going to avoid a really embarrasing score he needs his serve to be at its best. He served well against Roddick but I just don’t think he believes he can beat Nadal. As I said at the top Nadal has won their last 7 matches and in those matches Berdych didn’t take a single set.

Back Nadal from the start.

Update: Close first set. The turning point in the match was when Nadal was serving at 5-6. As I saw it the umpire called a ball out and Berdych challenged. Hawkeye showed that the ball was in and the point should have been replayed but it was given to Berdych. Nadal felt that it was the wrong decision and was angry to say the least. Nadal uses situations like that to make himself play better.  I stated in the chatroom at at that time that Berdych was toast. He won just one more game in the whole match.

Nadal won 7-6, 6-1.



20:00 – Djokovic v Roddick

Rankings are 3 and 8. Head to heads are ( surprisingly) 5-2 to Roddick. Roddick has won their last 4 matches dropping just 1 set.

Roddick needs to win in straight sets to qualify however he needs Nadal to win in straight sets too. If Berdych takes a set then Roddick is out.

I had to double check the head to head stat as I expected Djokovic to be on top. That makes is even harder to pick the winner. Both have been in good form in the run up to this event.

My gut feeling is that Djokovic should take the match but the H2H is creating some doubt in my mind. I think if Djokovic takes the opening set then Roddick will have to deal with the disappointment of not reaching the semi finals stage and his head may go down.

In the opening few games if Djokovic is putting pressure on Roddick’s serve then he is favourite to take the match. If Roddick is throwing down ace after ace then Djokovic will find this a very tough match.

Going with my gut. Djokovic to win a potential classic.

Update: Once Djokovic got the measure of Roddick’s serve it was one way traffic.

Djokovic won 6-2, 6-3.

    Trading Guide