ATP World Tour Finals, The Final: Tsitsipas v Thiem

Stefanos Tsitsipas 2.12, Dominic Thiem 1.87

Due to start at 6 pm.

Thiem leads their previous matches 4-2. The last time they met was in the Beijing final in September. Thiem won on a hard court in 3 sets. All their other matches were in 2018.

Overall results this season are good for both players but slightly favour Thiem. they have both won 73% of their indoor matches in 2019. Thiem’s indoor ROI is higher.

Both players have won 3 of their 4 matches this week. Tsitsipas has been a little better on serve and Thiem has been a little better on return.

Tsitsipas has been broken once all week. Roger Federer only managed to take 1 of his 12 break points in the semi final. Nadal couldn’t break him but took his 2 sets in tie breaks. His serve has come under pressure but when his back has been against the wall he has played the points exceptionally well. He did get tight when serving for both sets in the semi final. He really looks like he’s enjoying himself.

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Thiem started the tournament well with a straight sets win over Federer. Djokovic was taken down in a third set tie break. that match took a lot out of both players. Djokovic wasn’t able to compete at his best against Federer and Thiem looked flat against Berrettini and lost in straight sets.

The sets will be very tight as most sets have been this week. The value is on Tsitsipas. He has really lifted his game this week and seems to really like the conditions. We haven’t had many 3 setters in this tournament but I’ll be amazed if this finishes in 2 sets.

Lay Thiem around 1.65 and remove liability at 2.20. Lay the set 1 winner. I am favouring Tsitsipas to win.

Update: great match! The first set was very close and they ended up in a tie break. Thiem won it. In the second set Thiem’s level dropped and Tsitsipas took a double break lead and won the set. In the deciding set Tsitsipas won an early break of serve but could not hold on to it. the set ended in another tie break. This time it was Tsitsipas who controlled it.
Tsitsipas won 6-7, 6-2, 7-6.

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