14:00 – Federer v Soderling
Rankings are 2 and 4. Head to heads are 14-2 to Soderling. (edit: oops that ofcourse should be 14-2 to Fed! )
Even though some of the matches aren’t going the way we might have expected its difficult to imagine Soderling being able to get near Federer this week. Fed is totally focussed and he just isn’t allowing his opponents into the matches.
Soderling was poor against Murray and wasn’t overly impressive against Ferrer. The market doesn’t give him too much of a chance with Federer starting around 1.26 . If Soderling comes out swinging there’s always a chance he may take a set though.
Federer has talked about how he has saved energy so far with each match being in straight sets. He only needs to win 5 games in this match to qualify for the semi finals so if the first set looks like going Soderling’s way will he go all out for the win? Its inconceivable that he won’t get the 5 games he needs. Also something to bear in mind though is that if he wins the tournament undefeated then he gets just 500 points less than he would get for winning a Major.
Personally I feel he will go for the win. He’ll want to prove he can still beat the best players consistently.
Laying Fed at the start is definitely an option but if he looks like he will steamroller Soderling then get out of the trade. Soderling’s only chance is to take the first set.
Update: Federer won 7-6, 6-3.
20:00 – Murray v Ferrer
Rankings are 5 and 7. Head to heads are 3-1 to Ferrer. As you might expect all Ferrer’s wins came on clay.
Ferrer still has a slight chance of qualifying for the semis but regardless of that he won’t want to leave here with 3 defeats. He is a fighter to the end but his serve needs to be more consistent than it has been so far and he needs to play the big points better.
Murray will be expected to win easily by the public and he is at 1.20 on Betfair. I think that has to be a lay of Murray from the start. Murray disappoints so often you can almost expect it. Ferrer has shown he can beat the Scot on clay and this surface is on the slow side.
Don’t get too greedy with the lay. If Ferrer takes the opening set I expect Murray to take the second.
Update: very one sided match. Murray won 6-2, 6-2.