Australian Open 2012 week 1, Monday night’s matches

Not a bad first night with some great price swings.

Early casualties include Davydenko ( will he ever get back near his best? ), Montanes and Ljubicic who was 2 sets and a break up against Lacko.

Nieminen’s long week last week finally caught up with him and he retireed against Nalbandian ( I just wish he had sone so in the final with Benneteau!)

Not a total surprise to see Tomic beat Verdasco although he also had a 2 set lead that was thrown away.

In the womens draw Mattek-Sands gave Radwanska a scare when she took the opening set tie break. Up and coming player Ormaechea took out Halep in 3 sets.

Hantuchova had work to do when Lepchenko took the opening set but she dug in and turned it around.

One of the biggest surprises of the night was perhaps Pennetta losing out to  Russian Bratchikova.

 

Rosol v Petzschner:

Rosol has started 2012 pretty well. He has just 1 win from 3 matches but he  lost to Ferrer and Troicki and gave a good account of himself in both. His win was against Albert Ramos.

Petschner has played just 2 matches with a loss to Giraldo and a win over best mate Melzer. Melzer seems to only be  able to play well in exhibition events so no great kudos in that win.

Petschner starts as strong favourite at 1.45 and whilst he ought to win this over 5 sets I don’t think it will be over in 3. Wait for a higher price before backing him. his also gives you chane to see how he plays. If Petzschner does get an early break there are plenty of other matches available so move on to another.

Update: I think that comes under “move onto the next”.

Petzschner won 6-0, 6-0, 6-2.

 

Lodra v Gulbis:

Decent starting prices with Gulbis at 1..78 . All  we need to do is sort out who will be stronger. Although wwith these two players perhaps I should have said we need to sort out who will be less weak.

Taken from Tennis Insight:

Michael Llodra has lost 4 of last 5 on Hard Court.
Michael Llodra has lost 5 of last 6 when Opponent is a Big Server.
Michael Llodra has lost 4 of last 5 when priced as Underdog ($2.00 to $2.999).
Ernests Gulbis has lost 5 in a row overall.
Ernests Gulbis has lost 4 of last 5 in 5 set matches.
Ernests Gulbis has lost 4 of last 5 on Hard Court.
Ernests Gulbis has lost 5 of last 6 at Australian Open Slam.
Ernests Gulbis has lost 9 of last 10 at Grand Slam level
 
I think the last time either player won something was when Llodra pulled a Christmas cracker with his kid and got the bigger  bit.
 
Llodra’s serve and volley could  be the answer for him here although confidence can’t be high for the Frenchman.
Head to heads are 2-2 although Gulbis’ win in their last match was down to Llodra retiring.
 
I’ll give the edge to Gulbis as he has played a main tour match in 2012 which he lost to Youzhny in 3 sets. A few players are having problems in their opening matches.
 
Update: Gulbis got off to the best start and took the opening set but it was Llodra who came through in 4 sets.
 
Llodra won 2-6, 6-1, 6-2, 6-2.
 
 
 
 
 
    Trading Guide

1 thought on “Australian Open 2012 week 1, Monday night’s matches”

  1. It says a lot:

    “Ernests Gulbis has lost 5 of last 6 at Australian Open Slam.
    Ernests Gulbis has lost 9 of last 10 at Grand Slam level”

    Gulbis is just too small or too stupid to play in Grand Slams 😉 I dont like him, he is unpredictable and usually looser at all.

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