Australian Open 2012, week 1 – Saturday night’s matches

The thing about Grand Slams is that in the first week there are too many matches and in the second week hardly any. We are already down to just 8 games if you ignore the doubles. I think you have to be an addict to use decent stakes on doubles!

 

Berdych v Almagro:

Berdych came through in straight sets against Anderson but needed 2 tie breaks. He wasted a lot of break chances in those sets and will need to take them today.

Almagro took out Wawrinka in straight sets with a superb display of aggressive tennis. He was a little distracted when Wawrinka looked almost ready to quit towards the end of the second set. Almagro took the set but gave Wawrinka a break in the third.  He served well throughout the match and his backhand was as solid as a rock.

Berdych leads the h2h 4-2 and Almagro has never beaten him away from clay courts. They have only actually played one match on hard courts which was their most recent match and Berdych won easily in straight sets.

I don’t realistically see an upset in this one as Berdych should have too big a game over 5 sets. However I think we may see a higher price in the opening set especially if Berdych wastes any chances he gets against the Almagro serve.

Berdych in 4 sets.

Update: Almagro played the better opening set and took it 6-4. berdych came back with 3 tie break sets to win 4-6, 7-6, 7-6, 7-6.

Berdych was booed off the court by the Australian crowd when he refused to shake Almagro’s hand after the match. He was upset at Almagro hitting the ball at him  during the match.

 

Tomic v Federer:

This is probably one of the matches that the Australian public want to see the most.

They have played once before which was last September in the Davis Cup. Fed won 3-1 on grass.

Federer is playing very controlled tennis at the moment. He has yet to drop a set and is right up there among the players with a good chance of lifting the trophy.

Tomic has improved his game over the last 12 months and his ranking has come down from over 200 to his current 37. If he is to have a chance against Federer he will have to go all out attack and even then it will have to be exceptional. In his favour is that he will have the loud Aussie crowd behind him and if he gets his nose in front they will go crazy. The downside is that this is a slam and Federer doesn’t often slip up before the semi’s.

I’ll wait for a higher price than the 1.12 currently on offer. As its over 5 sets Tomic will need to take the opening set to get a decent backing price but lets face it we have seen lesser players than Tomic take the first set, perhaps on a tie  break.

I think 4 sets is the best Tomic can hope  for.

Update: Federer handed the young Aussie a tennis lesson.

Fed won 6-4, 6-2, 6-2.

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2 thoughts on “Australian Open 2012, week 1 – Saturday night’s matches”

  1. Agree with your Federer analysis. Easily the most likely winner but waiting for any small slip to shift the odds before going in on the back side is clearly the best option.

    Best of luck

    Ben (NTF)

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