Australian Open 2012, week 1 – Thursday night’s matches

Oprandi v Goerges:

Oprandi was ecstatic after her defeat of Schiavone in the last round.  Rightly so as to beat the world number 11 in a Grand Slam is a massive achievement. In reality though Schiavone played a really awful match.

Goerges has played pretty solidly so far. She has yet to lose a set and had the bonus of a short match against Daniilido who retired after a couple of games of the second set.

Oprandi plays consistent tennis and waits for the opponent to make the errors. That worked a treat against Schiavone  but Goerges’ ground strokes have been impressive.

I just don’t see Oprandi having the weapons to take the match away from the German and the result will depend on Goerges’ form. I expect 2 straight sets to Goerges.

Update: Goerges made a terrible start to the match and was making too many errors. oprandi took the first set. In the second both players called for the medic but Oprandi looked like she was in more trouble than Goerges. Goerges came back to win the  second set and then ran away with the third.

Goerges won 3-6, 6-3, 6-1.


Wawrinka v Almagro:

World number 10 Almagro finds himself as massive underdog on the exchanges with his opponent starting at 1.41 on Betfair and 1.38 on Betdaq. Those prices just feel too short despite Wawrinka leading the head to heads 4-1.  Almagro’s only win came at Aukland 2007 on a hard court.

With the exception of their most recent match ( Aug 2010 ) which ended in a straight sets win for Wawrinka all their matches have gone the distance. Wawrinka has taken the first set in 4 of the 5 matches.

Almagro has won just 6 from 27 matches on hard courts when he starts as underdog. He came back from 1-2 down against Dimitrov and from a set down against Kubot. For large sections of both matches Almagro played superbly but he can get complacent and go for big winners instead of ensuring his opponent has to play a shot.

Wawrinka was impressive against Baghdatis but while he usually performs well at the Grand Slams its often an underdog who takes him out.

With both these players anything can happen. Who expected Go Soeda to beat Wawrinka?  I certainly can’t be backing Wawrinka at 1.40 here and have a sneaky gut feeling feeling that it will be a very tight match and Almagro has a chance to scrape through.

I want to see how the match starts before getting involved but will be looking for signs of Almagro having the upper hand.

Update: Match of the week! Almagro won the first break but was broken back. he broke again but again was broken back and it went into a tie break. Almagro took the set.

In the second  Almagro won an early break. Towards the end of the set Wawrinka called for the medic and looked like there was a good chance he would quit. Almagro took the second set.

Wawrinka continued and won a break in the third set but Almagro came back and took the set and the match.

Almagro won 7-6, 6-2, 6-4.

    Trading Guide

1 thought on “Australian Open 2012, week 1 – Thursday night’s matches”

  1. ironic “Match of the week!” – almagro and fat wawrinka?

    it was the worst match i’ve seen this week…

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