Australian Open 2013, week 1 – Monday night

Liquidity was mixed last night. Those matches with streams were usually ok to trade although if they clashed with a more popular game even the televised games could be gappy. The other matches were mostly “fill or kill” zones where traders put orders in and if they weren’t immediately matched they pulled out. They were ok if you had a strong opinion of who would win but with players still finding their touch in 2013 finding the ultimate winner could be harder than normal.

Best to keep disciplined and stay away from the Fill or kills ( or fok and occasionally for fok sake ) games.

Not a bad start to the tournament at all. As the matches thin out the traders’ money won’t be as thinly spread.


Petrova has played just 1 match in 2013 which he narrowly lost in 2 tight sets to Vinci. She starts as strong favourite against Date Krumm at 1.30 but I expect the veteran to keep the sets close. There is a good chance we get a price of at least 1.65 on Petrova which is more like value.

Update: Awful performance from Petrova who managed to win just 2 games.

Date Krumm won 6-2, 6-0.


Shvedova is almost value at 1.65 against Beck. Beck is on a great run of results and beat Hsieh in the first event of the year. Most of her recent wins though have been against lower ranked players.

Shvedova must  be sick of the sight of Vesnina as the Russian has knocked her out of both tournaments in 2013. She has played well though and just needs to fine tune her game. I expect the first set to be close and Shvedova ought to trade higher but if the opening set can be secured I think Beck’s head will drop as will  her resistance.

Look to get on Shvedova close to evens.

Update: For a player who is known as a good server for Shvedova to lose her first EIGHT servive games is unusual. She was broken 11 times in total.

Beck won 6-2, 6-7, 6-3.


Both Haas and Nieminen have made a good start to the year. Haas leads the head to heads 3-1. Their sets are always close and I don’t see this being a straight sets win for Haas but I expect the German to progress to the next round.

His starting price of 1.45 is pretty tight and I would say anything over 1.65 becomes value.

Update: Haas was slightly on top in the opening set but just couldn’t take his chances. The set went to a tie which Nieminen won. Haas was immediately broken in the second set but it was Haas who broke twice to take the set.

The next 2 sets were very close and they took one each. In the 5th set at 6-5 Haas had a match point but it was saved. Nieminen broke in the next game and served out the match.

Nieminen won 7-6, 4-6, 6-3, 4-6, 8-6.

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