Australian Open 2013 – week 1, Thursday night

I felt better for the extra sleep yesterday but still couldn’t stay around for the Laura Robson match. She came through in what sounds like an epic match 11-9 in the third. I had tipped the match to go over 22.5 games. By the way I have started posting some betting tips. Quite a few of you have seen and used the link at the top of the blog. A different format to the tips from last year. I’ve only been posting this week and there are the results are updated daily. 7 from 10 have been successful and I’ll see how they go for a while.

Something that is to be expected so early in the season is that we are getting some surprise results and scores. One thing that I have found different to previous years is the number of players who are starting the season with injuries that are bad enough to either affect their performance or even to force them to retire.

Lets see what we have as the number of matches starts to thin out…..

 

Goerges and Zheng should have a tight match. They have played twice before and Zheng won them both. The set count is 4-1. Both matches were on hard courts. In round 2 Goerges beat Oprandi fairly comfortably. She is striking the ball pretty well and her serve has been effective over all.

Zheng had a very different opponent. Stosur always under performs on home soil and that match was no different. However the Aussie came back from being a set down to take the second set 6-1. In the decider Stosur was 5-2 ahead and Zheng must have thought that her tournament was over. Stosur’s  demons kicked in and she lost the next 5 games.

Goerges’ game is as a big server and a big hitter. So far this week both serve and grounstrokes have worked fairly well and she has often been able to serve herself out of trouble. She needed 3 sets to beat Dushevina but Dusevina had played the qualification rounds and had already been able to get used to the courts.

The stats other than the head to head are mostly in Goerges’ favour. She doesn’t use a great deal of spin and hits fairly flat which suits Zheng.

I think we will see swings in the price and probably 3 sets. I will look to trade the market rather than trade the match. No prematch entry. I’ll look to assess the players’ performance in the early games but as I expect a lot of people will have problems picking a winner an early break will get an over reaction in the price and I’ll lay the leader.

If Goerges serves well she will get the cheap points that Stosur just wasn’t able to get. I think Goerges has the game to take the match away from Zheng.

Update: The first set was all Goerges. She was helped in no small part by a totally inept performance from Zheng. Set 2 was completely different and Zheng started playing. Goerges managed to win just 1 game.

Goerges took the decider Goerges was broken early. The set progressed on serve but as Zheng served for the match she was broken. A hold followed by another break gave Goerges the match.

Goerges won 6-3, 1-6, 7-5.

 

Anderson starts as favourite against Verdasco. The Spaniard leads the head to heads 2-1 although Anderson won their most recent match which was in the recent Hopman Cup tie.

Anderson started the season slowly but his standard has improved with each match. He reached the final in Sydney where he lost in 3 sets to Tomic. He has lost just 1 set this week.

Verdasco had a real battle in the first round with Goffin and came back from 2 sets to 1 down to win in 5. He had a straight sets win in round 2 against Malisse although I believe Malisse was carrying an injury.

As Anderson finished last season strongly and has grown positively through the early games of 2013 I am going with him to get the win. Verdasco has also started reasonably well but hasn’t shown anything to make me think he can take this.

Anderson to win in 4 sets.

Update: It was verdasco who broke first. Anderson broke back immediately only to be broken in the next game. Verdasco took the set. In set 2 with Verdasco facing break point Verdasco was given a warning when his camp were judged to be coaching him. He lost his cool a little and also lost the break point. Anderson took the set.

Anderson took the third set with a late break. In the 4th they won a break each and Verdasco took the set in a tie break.  Anderson took the 5th with a double break.

Anderson won 4-6, 6-3, 4-6, 7-6, 6-2.

    Trading Guide

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