Australian Open 2013 – week 2, Monday night

When Radwanksa played Li in Sydney their previous meetings strongly suggested a Li win. She had won all 4 of their previous hard court matches and her form was good. On the day her performance was appalling and she was outplayed.

Tonight they meet again. Radwanska is still unbeaten in 2013 and her great form has continued. In her 4 matches last week she has a TOTAL of 44 unforced errors compared to 104 from Li. Radwanska  has hit just just 3 double faults in 4 matches and in fact all 3 were against Begu. Li has hit 13 doubles faults.

I think it’s unlikely that Li’s performance will be as bad as the Sydney match but it is difficult to go against Radwanska. Because I expect it to be a closer match I don’t feel that 1.63 offers any value. I am looking for 1.90 in play.

Update:Li made a better start even though it seemed to take an eternity to hold in the first game.

The first break went to Radwanska but that started off a chain of breaks. Radwanska’s price went up near evens before she broke to lead 5-4 and serve for the set. She was broken and then broken again to hand the set to LI.

In set 2 Radwanksa immediately broke. She never really looked comfortable on serve and 2 breaks for Li gave her the chance to serve out the match.

Li won 7-5, 6-3.

 

Ferrer leads the head to heads with Almagro 12-0.

Almagro has been serving exceptionally well in this tournament and only Raonic has hit more aces. If you can get a good price on Almagro hitting more aces in this match than Ferrer then go for it.

Ferrer starts at 1.20 and a good serving performance from Almagro will push that higher. I will go with a lay on Ferrer and will switch to Ferrer if Almagro breaks or if they get to a tie break, which ever comes first.

Update: What a match! Almagro was first to break even though it was Ferrer hitting aces! Almagro’s backhand was working well and he was looking tough to break down. I had laid Ferrer from the start and after the Almagro break I had switched the green to Ferrer but Almagro was more impressive and I switched to him. I stuck with him into set 2 and was rewarded when Almagro won the only break of the set to lead 2 sets to 0.

I removed the liability leaving the green on Almagro. He was again the first to break and served for the match. I laid Almagro with some of the green and Ferrer broke. Ferrer broke again to take the set.

The 4th set had eight breaks of serve and as I was feeling pretty tired I stayed out of the market and watched. Almagro received an MTO for what looked like either cramp or a groin strain. He had chances to serve out the match but just couldn’t. Ferrer took the set in a tie break. Almagro was really struggling by this stage and perhaps should have retired. He never really challenged for the set.

Incidentally Ferrer was leading the aces count for the early part of the match but Almagro took a small lead. Without the injury he would have served more aces and if he had retired early in the 5th set the bet would have been a winner. As Ferrer served for the match the ace count was level. Ferrer hit a single ace in that final game!

Ferrer won 4-6, 4-6, 7-5, 7-6, 6-2.

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