Australian Open 2015 – week 1, day 3

WTA, midnight – Shvedova v Puig

Shvedova had an unexpected win over Safarova in the first round. She won 8-6 in the third set.

Puig had a much easier first round match beating Rodionova 6-0, 6-3.

They have played before but it was almost 3 years ago. Shvedova won comfortably.

Their hard court stats for the last 6 months are quite even. Shvedova has slightly better numbers on serve but Puig allows fewer holds by her opponents. If we compare stats against common opponents then it is Puig who leads the way in every category.

Shvedova starts at 1.68 and I think Puig will trade below 1.70 . I am looking to lay Shvedova below 1.40 .

Shvedova to win a tight match. 2 close sets or perhaps 3.



WTA, 02:45 – Errani v Soler Espinosa

They have only played on clay before and Errani leads the head to heads 3-0.

Errani finally won her first match of the season when she beat Grace Min 6-1, 6-0 in the first round.

Soler Espinosa had an excellent straight sets win over Beck. In Sydney she won through the qualifying rounds with wins over Brengle and Taylor Townsend.

Errani starts at 1.50 which would seem to factor in the possibility of her being less than 100% fit.

I will put part stake on Errani from the start and add to the position if she is broken early in the match.



ATP, 04:00 – Chardy v Seppi

Their only previous meeting was at the Australian Open 2 years ago. Chardy won in 4 sets.

Seppi reached the semi finals in Doha. He beat Istomin in the first round this week in 5 sets.

Chardy has two second round finishes so far this season. Both his losses were in 3 sets.

Over the last 6 months Seppi has stronger stats in every category other than service holds which Chardy slightly leads in. Seppi won 58% of his matches in that period compared to  47% for Chardy.

Chardy starts at 1.58 but I expect that to trade a fair bit higher. This could be a match with a few price swings. I am favouring Seppi to come out on top.

If I get the chance to lay Chardy below 1.40 I will take it.

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