Australian Open 2015 – week 1, day 5

I never got around to adding to yesterday’s post. It was a busy trading session. Plus I was pissed off with Mannarino. I had tipped him to beat Lopez for the Shark Tips service. He won the first 2 sets and went into a 4-0 lead in the third before he got injured. Having served for the match at 5-3 he lost the set in a tie break and retired in the 4th set. You have to love tennis betting.

 

 

WTA, midnight – Errani v Wickmayer

All their previous matches have been on hard courts. Wickmayer leads 3-2 but Errani has won the two most recent meetings. The last was in August and Errani won in a third set tie break. In fact their last 3 matches went to a deciding set.

Over the last 6 months Wickmayer has better stats on everything except return of serve. That’s not a huge surprise as Errani never had ther biggest serve and her new(ish) service action wasn’t designed to add power.

Errani starts around 1.50 but Wickmayer has been striking the ball fairly well this week and I’m sure she is looking forward to a few second serves to tee off on.

Errani only lost 1 game in her first round match but looked more vulnerable in the second round match with Soler Espinosa. I think Wickmayer will at least give her a scare and will almost certainly trade below evens, With their history 3 sets would be no surprise. Wickmayer has never failed to take a set in this match up.

 

 

WTA, 01:15 – Bouchard v Garcia

Before this week Garcia’s form had been in a slump. I doubt anyone but her die hard fans expected much from her in this tournament. However something has clicked into place for her and she beat Kuznetsova in straight sets in round 1. Voegele was also despatched in straight sets in the last round.

Bouchard played the Hopman Cup to get warmed up for the season. She lost to Safarova but beat Serena and Pennetta, both in straight sets. Her first two matches this week were pretty straight forward affairs and she has yet to drop a set.

Their only previous match was almost a year ago in Acapulco and Garcia won in 3 sets.

Garcia has the bigger serve and is very likely to hit more aces but she will also give away more break chances.  Bouchard has also made fewer unforced errors in the tournament so far.

The Canadian starts at 1.33  but as long as Garcia doesn’t suffer too badly with nerves I think we will see Bouchard trading significantly higher. A lay on her around 1.20 seems like giving us a decent chance of some profit.

In the end I expect Bouchard to come through but it won’t be easy.

 

 

 

ATP, 07:00 – Anderson v Gasquet

Gasquet leads the head to heads 4-1. All the matches were on hard courts. Gasquet’s wins were all in straight sets and the winner of the opening set won the match every time.

Gasquet had a superb run in grand slams of reaching the 4th round but last season he failed to get past the third round at any slam.He should be able to put that right today but he will need to keep his concentration for the whole match.

Anderson has dropped just one set which was in the first round to Schwartzman. Gasquet still has a clean sheet.

Anderson didn’t face a single break point in his last match but against Schwartzman there were 14! Gasquet has given just 4 in total and hasn’t been broken.

Gasquet has been solid  so far and I see no reason for that to change tonight.

The Frenchman starts at 1.51 but we may get 1.70 if he can make a slow start in a service game or two. Part stake on Gasquet at 1.60 and the rest above 1.70 .

 

 

 

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