Williams leads the head to heads 5-1. All their matches were on hard courts (2 indoors). All were won in 2 sets. Kerber’s win was in Cincinnatti in 2012. They haven’t played since Jul 2014.
Serena hasn’t dropped a set and her hardest match was still her first round win over Giorgi.
Kerber has dropped just 1 set which was the opening set of her first round match with Doi. She looked shaky on serve in the first set against Beck in the 4th round but played very strong tennis against Azarenka and Konta. This is her first slam final. Nerves will play a part for her.
Kerber has improved her record in finals. Last season she was in 5 finals and won 4 of them. I think playing Serena in her first slam final is too much for her. She always has a period in match where her level of play drops and she just can’t get away with it in this match unless Serena is having a nightmare.
Nerves could also be a minor factor for Serena too as she looks to get her 22nd slam title. Serena in straight sets looks like the most likely outcome.
We have no value on Serena unless she loses the opening set.