Australian Open – Tues week 2

Apologies for the late post.

 

Midnight – Henin v Petrova

 

Petrova is ranked 19. The former world number 1 has no ranking yet. Head to heads are 11 -2 to Henin.

 

Henin’s comeback is going quite well! My concern is how much longer can she keep going? Another 3 setter last night was the last thing she needed.

 

On the other side of the net, Petrova must also be on borrowed time. At times she has been brilliant in this tournament but at others has looked incredibly fragile. She seems to be holding it together better at the crucial times.

 

Henin would love to “do a Clijsters” and win a major early in her comeback and has to be a strong favourite and she will play through any pain she is in.

 

Henin has experiance to call upon and thatcould be the difference. If she can play smarter rather than work harder then this could be over quite quickly.

 

This tournament has seen its fair share of topsey-turvey WTA matches so scalping or 15-40 are much safer ways to trade it. Watch the opening games to see if Henin gives Petrovic the runaround early on. If she does then thats a good sign and she should come through in straight sets.

 

If she doesn’t then just take what opportunities the match throws you.

 

Henin to win in 2  sets with at least one of them being close.

 

Update: 2 close sets with Henin winning 7-6, 7-5.

 

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04:00 – Roddick v Cilic

 

Rankings are 6 and 14. Head to heads are 1-1.

 

Both men are coming off tough 5 set matches in the 4th round.

 

Time for the battle of the big servers. Cilic has lost the first set in each round except the first.  He may be nervous early on so Roddick will probably take the opening set.

 

Obviously both men are ok to back on their own service. I’d be surprised if we don’t have at least 1 tie break.

 

Tough to pick a winner. Cilic made a few too many errors against Del Potro. He was fortunate that Del Potro made even more. I’m going  for Roddick in 4 sets.

 

Update: I thought Roddick might get stronger as the tournament progressed. He didn’t. Take nothing away from Cilic though. I only saw the deciding set but he thoroughly deserved to win. He was more aggressive, more positive and while Roddick was waiting for him to make mistakes Cilic went out and forced the errors from the  American.

 

Cilic won 7-6. 6-3, 3-6, 2-6, 6-3.

 

08:30 – Murray v Nadal

 

Rankings are 4 and 2. Head to heads are 7-2 to Nadal.

 

Murray hasn’t had as much success against Nadal as he has had against Federer.

 

I was skeptical about Murray’s chances in the tournament but he has started with a much better attitude and game plan than we normally see from the Scot. His first serve was poor in his opening game but has improved since. He is playing an aggressive game and looking confident.

 

Nadal has lost a couple of sets so far which suggests he isn’t back to his best yet. I think he soon will be and Murray needs to take his chance.

 

Backing Murray can be a nervy tactic. He wins a high percentage of his service games but often goes 0-30 down. You trade out and he bangs down 4 huge serves and wins the game. Nadal often relies on his ability to chase down balls that most players wouldnt even attempt. Of the 2 players I would be tempted to back Nadal on serve.

 

A safer way to trade is to wait for a break of serve before backing the leader. This is safer but obviously means you lose some of the potential profit as the price is much lower.

 

Watch the opening games to get a feel for who is on top. If either player gets broken its frequently in the early games. Back whoever seems to be holding serve easiest.

 

I think the day could belong to Murray. I’m gutted I can’t watch the match. Murray to win in 4 sets.

 

Update:As it turned out I WAS able to watch much of the match. the opening few games saw several breaks of serve. It was like the WTA! Murray came out on top.

 

The second set was tight and they exchnaged breaks of serve. Murray came back from 0-40 and 15-40 to frustrate Nadal. The set went to a tie break and it was all Murray. He won the tie break easily.

 

In the 3rd set Murray went a break and 3-0 up. Rafa had treatment for a knee injury at 0-2 and retired a game later.

 

A shame that it ended in a retirement but Murray was on top. this was possibly the best match he has played. By that i mean he played his own game and wasn’t controlled by his opponent. His serve was much better. He was aggressive whilst making very few unforced errors.

 

Next he has a very different game against Cilic who knocked him out of the US Open in 2009.

 

Murray won 6-3, 7-6, 3-0-retired

    Trading Guide