Australian Open – Wed week 2

Midnight – Li v V Williams

 

Rankings are 17 and 6. Head to heads are 1-0 to Li.

 

If this wasn’t  a Grand Slam event I would be leaning towards a Li win. The Williams sisters only seem to be able to raise their game for the majors these days.

 

Venus slipped up in the opening set in the last match but that shocked her into life and she took the next 2 sets very easily.

 

Li has gone about her job quietly this week. She has had a couple of tight 3 setters that may have sapped her energy a little.

 

Venus has a serve that some of the lower ranked men would be proud of and backing her on her service games is an option. Backing her from the start is again an option but as we saw against Schiavone she can lose concentration in the first set.

 

Alternatively  look for 15-40 opportunities and scalping is a good option too.

 

I’d expect Williams to come through fairly comfortably.

 

Update: Seems she can’t raise her game for Slams either! She started strongly taking the first set 6-2. The next 2 sets were very tight but Li took them both.

 

Li won 2-6, 7-6, 7-5.

 

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02:00 – S Williams v Azarenka

 

Rankings are 1 and 7. Head to heads are 3-1 to Serena.

 

Second part of the Williams Show and its really difficult to see anything other than a straight sets win for the world number 1. She has yet to lose a set ( Azarenka has only lost 1). She has a big serve and lets face it, it would take a brave line judge to call her for a footfault. Everything seems to point to a Williams  victory.

 

Backing Williams on serve really isn’t an option as her price starts at 1.28 . Backing her from the start is one way to go. There will be traders who will lay Williams simply because her price is low.  I’m not sure they will get many ticks with that strategy today.

 

Williams to win in straight sets.

 

UIpdate: The Williams layers will have got their rewards as she lost the first set. She came back to level the match in a tight second set but then ran away with the third.

 

Williams won 4-6, 7-6, 6-2.

 

 

04:00 – Federer v Davydenko

 

Rankings are 1 and 7. Head to heads are 12-2 to Fed although Davydenko has won their last 2 matches.

 

Can Davy get a hat-trick of victories against the world number 1? Quite possibly. Fed’s price is 1.38 which seems low. There’s not much to separate the 2 from their results so far in this tournament.

 

Laying Federer has to be a good option. Davydenko will have his game plan sorted and the last 2 defeats will put doubts into Fed’s mind.

 

Can’t really pick a winner although as I picked Davydenko as one of my 2 possible winners of the tournament ( along with Djokovic) I will stick by that prediction.

 

Update: Laying Fed worked well in the first set as Davy won it easily. He was a break up early in the second set and seemed to be cruising. Then Fed woke up.

 

He broke back and then broke again to take the 2nd set.

 

Davy then pretty much fell apart. He was struggling to win a point, never mind a game. He was making so many unforced errors. True Federer was playing better than he had in  the early part of the match but this was down to a sudden lack of confidence from Davy. Fed won the 3rd set 6-0.

 

Davydenko put up more of a fight in the 4th set but Feder broke serve at 5-5 and served out the match.

 

Fed won 2-6, 6-3, 6-0, 7-5.

 

 

08:30 – Djokovic v Tsonga

 

Rankings are 3 and 10. Head to heads are 4-2 in Tsonga’s favour.

 

Of the 2 players Djokovic has had more impressive results so far and I think he will make it through to the semi’s.

 

It should be a very entertaining match to watch. Tsonga is in better form than he has produced for quite a while.  When its working, his serve is a great weapon. Djokovic too wins a high percentage of his service games but often has to save break points as his first serve can let him down.

 

Watch the opening games to see whose serve it working best and back them on their own service games. I think we’ll see 4 sets so don’t over-commit yourself on the trades. You could get left behind.

 

Djokovic to win in 4 sets.

    Trading Guide