Australian Open – week 1, monday

Its the same old story in the first 2 or 3 days of grand slams. So many (it feels like TOO many) matches so the traders’ money is spread so thinly. It also affects a lot of the side markets too. This can mean that value pre match can be very hard to find. That’s why we love trading!

I wanted to take Saturday off so left myself a lot of work to do today with the tournament previews and researching all the matches. I have done a day’s work already and there’s still the small matter of the night shift trading session!

 

I will be in the members chatroom for as long as I can keep myself awake and there will be plenty of tips and advice shared as the matches progress.

 

Falla has lost his last 4 best of 5 set matches but if the courts are as fast as Nadal claims then his big serve could give Kukushkin some real problems. Falla starts at 1.84 and i will be waiting to back above 2.10 .

 

I am a little surprised to see Makarova as underdog against Venus Williams. Williams was poor in her last match although fatigue could have contributed as it was in the final in Auckland.

Makarova beat Jankovic in Sydney but then lost in straight sets to Suarez Navarro.

I thought they would be nearer evens for this match so a little value on Makarova. I will lay Williams below 1.50 .

 

Monaco has a strong head to head against Gulbis. Gulbis has lost in the first round of the Australian open on his last 3 visits. He didn’t play last season.

Gulbis has improved his game and mainly his attitude since his last visit but 1.20 seems way too low and has to be worth a lay for a trade.

I would expect Gulbis to ultimately get the win but I don’t think it will be straight forward.

 

Fognini is another player with a poor record at the Australian Open. He has lost in the first round for the last 4 years. Today he is at his highest career ranking having had the season of his life in 2013.

His opponent this year is Bogomolov Jr who made it through qualifying last season but lost in the first round. The last main draw match he won was at the US Open.

I would be amazed if Foggy doesn’t want to maintain his ranking this season and as he is defending no points against a player whose best tennis is long gone I have to feel he is value in this one at 1.85 . This is Fognini though and figuring out what is going on in his head isn’t easy.

I will wait to see how he starts and hopefully he will give us a price above 2.20 in the early games.

 

Zakopalova fell apart in the second set of her final last week. She had beaten Stosur in the semi final and I feel that Stosur’s desire for revenge. Before the loss last week Stosur had never lost a set on a hard court to Zak.

Stosur lost in the second round last season and in the first round the year before. Despite her poor loss last week I think over all she has improved her mental attitude and was perhaps saving a little for Melbourne.

I won’t be backing at SP though and will wait for her to go her usual early break behind before entering on  her.

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