Australian Open – Thur

Midnight – Monaco v Llodra

 

Rankings are 33 and 72. Head to heads are 1-1. Llodra won their last match in October.

 

Both Men were fairly comfortable in the last round winning in straight sets.

 

Monaco would be my favourite here as his serve will be the more consistent of the two. It could be close though and I will be surprised if Llodra doesnt at least take a set.

 

Monaco is at 1.45 on Betfair and I would expect him to trade higher than that. You could lay him from the start and trade out if he gets broken in the first set.

 

Alternatively, watch the first few games to see who has settled quickest. If Monaco is to be broken in the first set it is more likely to be early. If he seems to be serving well and holding his service games comfortably you can back him on serve.

 

I’d expect Monaco to win in 3 or 4 sets.

 

Update:I expected it to be close but didn’t think it would go to 5 sets!

 

Laying Monaco from the start will have worked a treat as he went 2 sets down. Then the fightback began. A tie break in the 3rd set is where the matched turned. Monaco won it and then went on to win the next 2 sets quite comfortbaly.

 

Monaco won 3-6, 3-6, 7-6, 6-1, 6-3

 

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02:00 – Petkovic v Suarez Navarro

 

Rankings are 49 and 43. They have never met.

 

They are fairly even on the market. Both women are likely to make mistakes. Suarez Navarro would be my favourite but this games looks ideal for anyone wanting to use the 15-40 method.

 

S N wasn’t that convincing in the last round so this could be a close one.

 

Update: In the end an easy win for Suarez Navarro, 6-1, 6-4.

 

06:30 – Robert v Montanes

 

Rankings are 104 and 32. They haven’t met.

 

Montanes made the semi finals of the recent Heineken Open, losing to eventual winner Isner.

 

They are more even on Betfair than I would expect with Montanes starting at 1.74 .  I’d recommend caution at the start and you could save yourself a whole load of problems by watching the opening 2 or 3 games. That allows you to get an idea of who is today’s form player.

 

Monatanes is an obvious favourite even though he prefers a clay court. An option is to wait for a break of serve before backing the leader. If Montanes seems to be serving well, he is worth backing on serve.

 

Montanes in 3 or 4 sets.

 

Update: …….or maybe 5 sets! Montanes went 2 sets down but came back strong. He won the next 3 sets fairly comfortably in the end. It wasn’t going all his way in the early stages of the deciding set though. Robert gained an early break but the Spaniard immediately broke back. Robert had given all he had and Montanes won the next 4 games  to win the match.

 

Montanes won 4-6, 6-7, 6-2, 6-3, 6-2

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