11:30 – Chardy v Montanes
Rankings are 46 and 29. They haven’t played before.
Montanes is undoubtedly the better clay court player.
Chardy prefers hard courts but even on the Challenger Tour he hasn’t enjoyed much success.
If Montanes can continue the form he showed last week then this will be an easy win.
He wins 77% of his service games. Chardy has a fairly big serve but he relies on it too much which isn’t a good game plan on clay.
Back Montanes on serve or from the start. If you back from the start make sure you have your strategy in place for if he goes behind. TradeShark Tennis members should check out the members area for ideas/tips on how to deal with that situation.
Update: Chardy started the match slightly better than Montanes. Half way through the first set he got the break of serve and managed to hold on to win the set.
In the second set Chardy broke in the first game and it looked like it was all over but Montanes fought back and took the set into a tie break.
The tie break was one way traffic with Chardy taking it 7-1. He won the match 6-3, 7-6.
I had backed Montanes from the start but even trading from a scoreboard it was clear that Chardy was serving the better of the two. His break came from a 15-40 position and so, even trading on my phone, it ws a simple task to switch sides at 15-40. He completed the break and went on to win the set.
In the second set after he broke I was thinking I ought to green up. Ofcourse while I was thinking about it Montanes broke back. When I’m in that situation I dont like to move over to the other player even if they are a break up before the end of the second set because if our player comes back you will be faced with a red figure on them and a very low price to try to change the situation with.
I held on for the tie break and would have switched sides only if Montanes was well on top in the tie break. I was using smaller stakes ( £200) as I was trading on my phone. When I had switched sides originally my liability was actually reduced to £169 with a green on Chardy of £93.
My break even price on Chardy was 1.55 and in the tie break when he was a couple of breaks up his price was around 1.08 and I tried to lay off my liability on Montanes. While the bet was being submitted his price dropped to 1.03 which is the price I was matched at. So I came away with £87 profit from the match.
13:30 – Melzer v Lapenti
Rankings are 27 and 118. Head to heads are 2-1 to Lapenti. He has won both meetings on clay although the last of those was 6 years ago.
Melzer is one of my favourite players so I have to be careful to not allow that to cloud my judgement. However the reasons that he stands out to me are his consistent play and excellent fighting spirit.
Lapenti, being from Ecuador, is used to playing on clay but his results aren’t great.
Melzer wins 83% of his service games.
Back him on serve or back him from the start.
I expect a straight sets win.
Update: Melzer won 6-3, 6-3.