11:00 – Monaco v Montanes – Live streaming pictures at bet365.com ( register for free to watch )
Rankings are 37 and 53. Head to head is 1-0 to Montanes.
Both players are clay specialists and have each lost just one set all week. Monaco is favourite on betfair at 1.39 . I have him as favourite but I think it will be closer than the market suggests. 1.55-1.60 would be more realistic.
Even though this is a mens final it is on clay and I think 15-40 will throw up some opportunities. Neither man has a huge serve although they are both consistent.
I will be looking for an opportunity to leave a back bet running on Monaco but only to the end of the set. This could easily be a 3 setter and each set will be close.
Update:Each set WAS close. 2 tie break sets both going to Montanes. Monaco was coming back strong in the 2nd set and was ( I think) 5-2 up. Then he had a fall which seemed to shake him a little. That was enough to allow Montanes to pull it back to 6-6 and the Spaniard took a tight tie break.