Six players – 3 days – 1 Champion
Federer and Nadal both get a bye through to the semi final. On Thursday the other 4 players fight it out for the remaining 2 semi final places.
It looks like Tsonga has pulled out and been replaced by David Ferrer. Thats a shame as I was looking forward to Tsonga playing Davydenko.
11:00 – Ferrer v Davydenko
Rankings are 17 and 6. Head to heads are 2-1 to Davydenko.
We only have last season’s form to go by as we have no idea of how their preparation has gone throughout December. ( Obviously Tsonga’s hasn’t gone to plan).
Davydenko finished the season in fantastic form winning the ATP finals. His confidence will be sky high. Ferrer on the other hand had a poor end of season although played very well in Spain’s Davis Cup win.
Last season’s stats show that Davy won 83% of his service games and saved 64% of break points against him. He won 31% of games against serve.
Ferrer won 32% of games against serve, 77% of his service games and saved 60% of break points against his serve.
Not huge differences in the numbers but those small differences make a huge difference on the court.
If Davydenko can produce some of the form that he showed at the end of last season this will be a straight sets win.
Trading options are to back Davydenko on serve or back him from the start. If you back him from the start make sure you have your strategy for if it doesn’t go the way you expected.
This game will hopefully be the first live Skype session of the season. If you’re interested in taking part please check out the Skype section on the forum for details.
Update: The first set went exactly as expected. Davydenko got an early break of serve and then a second. He took the set 6-2. I thought it was all over and took a break before the next game. When I returned to the PC Ferrer was 4-1 up in the second set!
Ferrer took the set 6-2. In the decider Davydenko went 30-0 up agianst serve and i backed him. Ferrer came back to take the game and i lost all the profit I had from the first set. Davydenko did manage a break of serve and i got most of that green back. Ferrer then came back again and ended up winning the match.
Ferrer won 2-6, 6-2, 6-4
12:15 – Soderling v Wawrinka
Rankings are 8 and 21. Head to heads are 1-1.
They haven’t played since 2008 and Soderling has improved a great deal in that time. Wawrinka also had a decent season though unspectacular.
Soderling ended last season in great style beating Nadal and Djokovic at the ATP finals. On a hard court his is a strong favourite. He wins 86% of his service games.
Wawrinka wins 81% of his own service games but I expect Soderling to be the much stronger player.
This could be closer than the market expects but its hard to know how pre-season prep has gone for each player.
Back him on serve.
Update: Well it couldn’t have been much closer! However in the first set it didn’t look that way. Soderling raced to a 5-1 lead and, again i thought it was all over. I greened up and left it alone.
Wawrinka came back to take the set to a tie break which Soderling won. I didnt watch the second set but it went to another tie break with Soderling coming out on top.
Soderling won 7-6, 7-6.
The 2 Skype sessions went well enough. The only problem ( apart from me nearly making a mess of the first match!) was that my aged PC couldn’t cope with so many Skype voice connections. Time for an upgrade. Generally very happy with the sessions though.