Third Place Play-off:- 11:00 – Federer v Ferrer
Rankings are 1 and 17. Head to heads are 9-0 to Federer.
Ferrer has nothing to lose today and should be able to swing freely. Federer is clearly not firing on all cylinders and Ferrer will be hoping to at least make a game of it.
Ferrer made a very good start against Nadal and the number 2 took a while to get going. Probably the big difference today is that Fed has had a match to warm up. Nadal was reportedly suffering from jetlag ( which could also have been Fed’s problem). However that shouldn’t be an issue today and I think we have a chance of getting a better indication of the players real current form in today’s matches.
Ferrer will try to get off to a quick start and Fed is often a slow starter against the more competent players. Laying Federer at the start is an option although you have to be careful not to be too greedy as I can’t see him losing the match. Ferrer’s best hope is to take the first set before Fed gets into his stride.
Backing Fed on serve at the start of the match is unlikely to bring much reward as the price movements won’t be more than a 3 or 4 ticks. If Ferrer takes the games to at least 30 you could be looking at a single tick profit per game. That assumes you are able to get matched at a decent opening back price.
As Federer is expected to win the match backing him at the start is an option but probably better to wait a few games. If Ferrer can keep the first set close and maybe even break Fed’s serve you will be able to back the Number 1 at a better price.
Update: Fed got off to a very quick start. His price was higher than its start point very briefly but I didnt take the opportunity to back him at the higher price. When he broke serve in the second game I backed him. He won the first set 6-1. As he was so much on top I let the back bet run to wait for a break of serve in the second set. That break came early and I greened up at 1.03.
Ferrer broke back to 4-4 but Fed got another break before the end.
Federer won 6-1, 7-5. This match was traded live with commentary via Skype.
Final:- 13:00 – Nadal v Soderling
Rankings are 2 and 8. Head to heads are 3-2 to Nadal but Soderling has won the last 2 matches.
Nadal will be keen to get a little revenge for the defeat at the ATP finals but more importantly for the defeat on Clay in Paris.
If I had to pick a winner I would have to go with Soderling. He has had 2 matches to build up his rhythm and will obviously be full of confidence at coming back from a set down against the world number 1.
Nadal made a slow start against Ferrer but after he went a set up he started to play a lot more freely. I feel he may need a few more matches before he is anywhere approaching his best form.
The market has them even so waiting a few games at the start could be a good way to see who is hitting the ball the best. Even waiting for the first break of serve before getting in should bring a decent profit if you don’t get too greedy.
Backing Soderling on serve is a good option. I would wait a few of Nadal’s service games before backing him(Nadal) as he tends to be a little shaky in his opening service games.
If we could predict who was going to break first there are huge profits to be made but you’d need a crystal ball for that.
The scalping method could be profitable but pick 2 or 3 entry points and stick with them. Don’t try to trade all possible entry points.
Update: Soderling made the stronger start, holding his serve a little easier. Both men just about managed to hold out for the first set tie break. Nadal won the tie break fairly comfortably.
In the second set it was again very close. Nadal came very close to breaking serve to win the match at 5-4. He had at least 2 match points but Soderling came back to level at 5-5. Nadal won the next 2 games to take the title.
In the live Skype session I started by backing Soderling on serve and it was all going to plan, building up a hedged profit of £30.
If someone asked me whether it was wise to use the 15-40 strategy in a mens match on a hard court with 2 of the best servers in the game they would have been advised not to. Its easier to give advice than follow it, isn’t it? Nadal went 40-1 up against the serve and I backed him. Soderling came back to 40-40 and that cost me all of the green figure. Shortly afterwards Soderling had a 40-15 lead against serve and I backed him. Once again the server pulled back to 40-40.
This was just before the first set tie break and I now had a red of £48. During the tie break Nadal took a strong lead and i bcked him. This gave me a green of £45 on Nadal and a liability of £248 on Soderling. I wasn’t able to green up at the end of the first set so decided to let the trade run into the second set. It was very tight and Soderling threatened to break a couple of times. As Nadal’s price increased I backed him again. I was ready to hedge out if my hedgeable figure reached my limit of -£125.
When Nadal almost broke serve at 5-4 I was able to hedge for a profit of £5 but I hesitated. The opportunity was only there for a few seconds and i missed it. A few seconds later my hedgeable figure was back to -£50.
I had 2 opportunities after that to get out at a much lower figure but I didn’t take them. I kept giving Nadal the chance to take the match points. He failed and on the 3rd opportunity I didn’t hesitate and hedged for -£6. I had to leave at that point so had to accept the small loss.
This type of situation is among those that I often don’t trade very well. I should have taken the opportunity to get out at a small loss much sooner. Having said that ofcourse I should have followed my own advice and passed up the 15-40 opportunities. When you’re trading you are learning all the time and its good to analyse what you did right and what you did wrong.
Obviously this situation isn’t normal with 5 people watching your every move ;-). Hopefully they found it useful. I think the live trading with an audience will improve my discipline.