11:40 – Tipsarevic v Cilic
Rankings are 38 and 14. Head to heads are 3-0 to Cilic.
Cilic has been a slow starter in his last 2 matches. In the quarter final he was 3-5 down in the first set but managed to pull back to win the set in a tie break. His serve doesn’t seem to be working at its best yet.
Tipsarevic is consistent rather than spectacular but that could be enough to take the first set. Whether he can then close out the match is another matter. Cilic gets stronger as the match goes on.
You could back either or both men on serve. Cilic is the obvious one but I would sit out his opening game as that could be a little nervy.
Be careful if using the 15-40 method as both men are capable of serving themselves out of trouble on a fast court.
Tipsarevic’s best chance is to take advantage of a Cilic slow start to win the opening set but I expect Cilic to win in 3 sets.
Update: Cilic won 6-1, 6-3 in a surprisingly one sided match.
13:40 (approx ) – Sela v Wawrinka
Rankings are 43 and 21. They have never met.
Both men have had a fairly straight forward route to the semis with neither dropping a set.
Wawrinka is a strong favourite which is reflected in the betfair market. Not a huge server but pretty consistent and he will be looking to climb the rankings this season.
Sela won’t make it easy for him though and I’d expect the match to be close with perhaps only 1 or 2 breaks per set.
Wawrinka is probably consistent enough to back him on serve but his starting price of 1.30 will not give us much profit per game. Scalping the match and taking what it offers us will be my choice although you could also back Wawrinka from the start and green up when he breaks. As always if you choose this method make sure you have your strategy worked out for what to do if he gets broken. Advice on this is on the members’ area of TradeSharkTennis.
I’d expect Wawrinka to go through in straight sets.
Update: Wawrinka won 6-4, 2-6, 7-5 in a match strewn with unforced errors.