China Open – Mon

12:00 – Andreev v Cilic

Rankings are 41 and 15. Head to heads are 2-1 to Cilic. He has won both games on fast courts.

Both men are strong on serve with both winning over 80% of their service games. Cilic saves slightly  more break points against him. The “big” difference between them is the number of points won against the serve. Cilic’s 34% to Andreev’s 29%. This is down to Cilic having a better game for the fast courts. Andreev can be a bit of a one trick pony.

Options for trading? Either back Cilic from the start and green up after the first set or back Cilic on his service games. If you choose the first option, make sure you have a strategy for if he loses serve.

I expect 2 straight sets to Cilic.

Update: A closer match than I expected. Cilic broke serve in the very first game and managed to hold his service games  to take the set 6-4. He then broke in the first game of the second set and then had another break to go 3-0 up.  Andreev pulled a break back but Cilic hung on the take the second set 6-4.


14:00 Almagro v Ferrero

Rankings are 29 and 21 and head to heads are 2-0 to Almagro. However, both those matches were on clay.

Ferrero wins 79% of his service games to Almagro’s 82%. Ferrero gets 67% of his first serves in to his opponent’s 58% and I think this wil be the difference today.

Ferrero also wins more points against serve at 30%.

Back Ferrero on serve.

I expect 2 tight sets with Ferrero going through.

Update: Ferrero won 7-5, 7-6. He held serve throughout the first set although he had a serious wobble at 5-5 when he faced several break points. He came through and broke serve in the next game to take the set.

He lost serve early in the second and was 4-2 down but fought back to take it to the tie break.


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