Cincinnati 2012, The Finals

Federer v Djokovic:

World ranked 1 v world ranked 2. Federer won their last match which was at Wimbledon on his favourite surface.

Today’s surface favours Djokovic and he has won their last 5 matches on outdoor hard courts. Djokovic has never won in Cincinnati. He has reached the final 3 times. In the past he hasn’t dealt with the heat and humidity too well but he seems to have sorted that issue and I think we will see him holding the trophy at the end.

Djokovic starts at 1.59 and in 4 of their last 5 outdoor hard court matches he won the opening set. The 5th match was lost in a ti break. In their 9 matches in 2011 and 2012 Djokovic leads 7-2 and won the first set in 6 of the 9 matches.

I will be backing Djokovic from the start with 2/3 o my stake and will add the rest if his price hits evens.

Update: I bailed out of this one quite quickly but still took a hit. Djokovic was awful in the first set and I’m sure no one expected a bagel. Closer in the second set but not a good day at the office for the Serb.

Federer won 6-0, 7-6.


 Li v Kerber:

Li Na leads the head to heads 4-1 but Kerber won their most recent hard court match which was at Indian Wells in March.

Kerber is one of my favourite WTA players. She has great fighting spirit. She really goes for her shots so if she has a bad day it can be a REALLY bad day but when she’s in form she can trouble anyone. The win over Serena will have given her some confidence as she didn’t seem to realise her opponent was throwing the match.

Li has been in good form but can “tune out” mentally at any time. She has been more consistent this week than she was in the Rogers Cup last week. She was a little fortunate that Venus was injured in the semi final.

 Li starts as slight favourite but for me Kerber will take this. I am hoping for a lower price to lay Li as I think this will be a 3 setter.

Update: The first set was all Kerber and when she took an early break in the second set I greened up and shut the laptop. I was surprised to see later that Li had come back to win the third set as easily as kerber won the first.

Li won 1-6, 6-3, 6-1.


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