Garcia-Lopez v Benneteau
Rankings are 53 and 55 and head to head is 1-1.
Both players had good wins in the last round but both can also fall apart mid-game. The market has G-L as favourite at 1.67 which i think is about right on current form as he also beat Verdasco this week.
Looks like a good scalping match and because of their 50’s rankings the 15-40 could be profitable too.
Update: Great scalping match! Benneteau won 4-6, 6-4, 7-6 . Bit scary if you still had an open trade at the end but plenty of price swings earlier to be greened by then 🙂
Davydenko v Simon
Rankings are 8 and 9 and head to head is 2-0 to Simon.
Davydenko has been close to his best recently winning 2 tournamnets on clay and reaching the quarter final last week, losing to Murray.
The market has Davydenko as favourite at 1.56 . He is one of the best receivers in the game and also one of the best consistent servers. Simon has looked a bit fragile lately and i would expect Davydenko to win this.
Back Davydenko at the start of his service games. Scalping will also work well giving us the option to let an open back bet run if Davydenko moves ahead.
Update: The first set went pretty much as expected with Davydenko winning 7-6. i had backed him from the start and greened up shortly before the end of the set. I then left to do something else and was amazed that Simon won the next 2 sets 6-4, 6-4. There will have been some nice price moves in those 2 sets 🙂
This match shows why when I back a player from the start always green up at the end of the first set ( obviously, only if they win it! ). Its amazing how one set can be totally different from the next!