Karlovic v Mathieu
Rankings are 29 and 31 and the head to head is 1-0 to Karlovic.
Karlovic’s serve should be too much for Mathieu and at a price of 1.56 he seems like reasonable value. It has taken some of the top players to beat him recently.
Mathieu has been in semi-reasonable form and perhaps slightly prefers hard courts so he may make a game of it but I doubt it.
Options are to back Karlovic at the start and green up after the first break or at the end of the first set.
Or back Karlovic at the start of his service games and trade out after each game.
Or scalp the match and when Karlovic moves ahead, allow an open back bet to run a little for extra ticks profit.
Ofcourse I am going to look like a pratt if Karlovic now loses but I’m used to that 🙂
Obviously, if you back Karlovic from the start, make sure you have a plan in place for if it goes tits up
Update: Well I got bits of it right! Backing Karlovic at the start of his service games brought a profit and if you had backed him from the start you had opportunities to trade out especially when his price dropped to 1.25 just before the end of the first set.
Mathieu deserved his win, 7-6, 6-4
Check out the above strategies at www.tradesharktennis.com
Melzer v Benneteau
Rankings are 37 and 55 and the head to head is 3-1 in Benneteau’s favour. he has won every meeting on hard courts.
The market has Melzer as favourite at 1.63 .
I never used to be a Benneteau fan as he clearly spent too much time getting his hair flashed but in the last couple of matches that I have been able to watch he put a lot of effort in to the fight.
This should be a decent match and hopefully will give us a few price swings for scalping or even 15-40 as both men can lose concentration for sectionsof a match.
Update: Great scalping match! Plenty of price swings in a 3 setter. Benneteau won 6-2, 3-6, 6-2