Cincinnati – Semi Finals

Federer v Murray

Rankins are 1 and 2. Head to head is 6-2 in Murray’s favour. He has won their last 4 meetings.

The market has them pretty much even with Murray slightly ahead. Murray started badly in his last match but got his act together to win the last 2 sets in a match he should have walked through.

Fed beat Hewitt is 2 straight sets but was a long way from the form we have come to expect recently. Neither player will need any more incentive to up their game today. Murray will want o continue his winning run against Fed and Federer will want to show he isn’t going to give up his number 1 spot without a fight.

If Murray brings his aggressive game to the court he will win. He struggles when he tries to play safe and relies on the other guy to make mistakes. Fed on form won’t make many mistakes.

Both players are among the best receivers, the best servers and they are in the top group when it comes to saving break points.

I will be backing both players on their service games. If there’s a break before they reach the tie break then I will be backing the leader.

I expect Murray to win. He had a scare against Benneteau when he was a set and a break down. I think that will be the kick up the arse that makes the difference today.

Update: Murray started badly. He just wasn’t on his game at all and Fed took advantage taking the first set 6-2. Murray woke up a bit in the second set and showed flashes of his usualy form but Federer took the match in the tie break. Murray’s head obviously wasn’t where it should be as he started self harming again by hitting his knuckles on his strings. Hopefully his coaching team will give him shit for that.

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Djokovic v Nadal

Rankings are 4 and 2. Head to head is 14-4 to Nadal (!). Nadal is 1.70 on Betfair.

Djoker at times in his last match was impressive. Simon took him close as he made too many unforced errors. Nadal isn’t back to full form yet but he isn’t far off. You can see the satisfaction in eyes when he hits a great winner.

As neither man has the killer instinct at the moment this could be quite close but I can’t see Nadal losing. Djoker will continue to make the unforced errors and Nadal will continue to improve.

Back Nadal on serve and wait to see how Djoker is performing before doing the same on his service games.

Watch out for 15-40’s but 0-40’s might be safer! Both men do well at saving break points.

Nadal to win a tight match.

Update: Couldn’t have got that one more wrong really although it turned into an easy to trade match. Nadal still has work to do to reach his “normal” form. Djokovic won 6-1, 6-4

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