20:00 – Starace v Ferrero
Rankings are 64 and 22. Head to heads are 5-1 to Ferrero.
Both men have played some superb tennis this week. Starace had a very tough match against Chela which went to three sets. As the match wore on the Italian was getting more on top and just had too much for Chela.
Ferrero’s match with Seppi was great to watch. Some of the hitting from the baseline was breathtaking but you always felt that Ferrero was slightly on top. Other than a slight wobble in the first round he has looked solid all week.
Ferrero has more experience of ATP finals. Starace has lost his last 4 finals.
There is a chance that Starace may be a little tired after his 3 setter and playing 2 matches the day before. You have to favour the Spaniard to use his experience to good effect.
I think it will be a close first set that Starace has to win to stand a chance. If Ferrero takes it then I feel he will close it out in straight sets.
Both men have served well this week with first serve percentages being 77% and 70% respectively. They have held serve 87% and 84% of the time.
Ferrero has won more points against serve and has converted 52% of break point opportunities compared to 45% by Starace.
Back both on serve.
Update: Ferrero won 6-4, 6-4. He always looked in control of this one.