A few more matches around today and the Davis cup games are covered by bet365.com
13:00 – Croatia v Czech Republic – Karlovic v Stepanek
Great match up. Rankings are 31 and 17.
1st serve percentages are 66 and 61. Karlovic wins a massive 85% of points if he gets the first serve in.
Karlovic wins 92% of service games! Stepanek manages a very creditable 80%. Karlovic saves 70% of breaks points to Stepanek’s 62%.
So the stats would suggest that Karovic is favourite but the market has him as underdog. Everyone knows about his serving ability and when the serve is firing on all cylinders it can blow away his opponent. The rest of his game is a little more hit and miss. Stepanek has a better all-round game and has won both their prevous meetings although the last one was 4 years ago.
If Karlovic is on form I would fancy him to take this. I will be backing him on serve and hoping to let a back bet run if he takes a lead.
Update: Bit of an epic! The first 4 sets went to tie breaks. I missed the first 2 games of the match which was disappointing as Karlovic broke serve. So I backed him and he immediately lost serve! So I started off with a red of about £37. By the end of the first set I had pulled most of that back and by the end of the second I was in profit. Nearing the end of the 3rd, even backing each player on serve was hardly bringing a profit. the price just wasnt moving more than a couple of ticks even if the player won his serve to love. I’d had enough by then and left the match with a tiny green.
Several hours later the match ended with a win for Stepanek 16-14 in the final set!
16:00 – Croatia v Czech Republic – Cilic v Berdych
Rankings are 15 and 18. They haven’t met before.
Cilic is in great form and had a great US Open beating Murray and taking a set off the eventual champion.
The market has him at 1.50 . I will be backing him on serve. Berdych can make a match of it and should keep the first set close. This will help our trading of Cilic’s serve as it will keep his price close to its starting level.
Update: This was a little better to trade and I greened up at the end of the second set. Otherwise I would have spent the whole day waiting for extra small trades!
Berdych did make a game of it and took the match 6-3 in the final set.