Alex De Minaur 2.10, Dennis Shapovalov 1.84
Due to start at 6:30 pm
Shapovalov won their only previous meeting. That was in the Surbiton Challenger, GBR in June 2017. He won on grass in 3 sets.
De Minaur has better overall results in 2019. He has won 67% of his matches compared to 59% matches won for Shapovalov. Both players have strong indoor records. their longer term results are fairly even but De Minaur has won 12 of 15 (80%) indoor matches in 2019 and Shapovalov has won 14 of 20 (70%).
Both men have won 2 matches this week. Stats for the week favour De Minaur on everything except service holds. Shapovalov leads that stat 97% v 89% service games held.
De Minaur reached the final of the Next Gen tournament 2 weeks ago. This week he was pretty comfortable against Daniel Elahi Galan. He was broken once in his straight sets win. In his next match he was was expected to come under more pressure from David Goffin but the opening set was very one sided with the Aussie handing the world number 11 a bagel. Their second set was much more competitive and went Australia’s way in a tie break.
Shapovalov won the indoor title in Stockholm last month. He backed that up 2 weeks later by reaching the final of the Paris Masters. he was helped by a walkover win over Rafael Nadal in the semi final and fell to Novak Djokovic in the final. This week he has had to work very hard for his wins. In his first match he faced world number 8 Matteo Berrettini. it proved to be a very close encounter with the Canadian coming out on top in 3 tie break sets. His next match also started with a tie break against American Taylor Fritz. Shapovalov won the tie break and finished the job in straight sets.
Some value on De Minaur. We have a very good chance of seeing 3 sets and at least 1 tie break. De Minaur has the better tie break record in 2019. Lay Shapovalov around 1.55 to 1.65 and remove liability at 2.10.
Update: De Minaur was broken in his 2nd service game. That was enough to give Shapovalov the set. De Minaur broke at the start of set 2 and he held on to take the set. A very late break in the deciding set gave De Minaur the win.
He won 3-6, 6-3, 7-5