18:00 – Sweeting v Nishikori
Rankings are 118 and 66. Head to heads are 3-0 to Nishikori.
The way the matches have gone this week its tempting to lay Nishikori as he’s bound to lose the first set. However you can’t make trading decisions that way. You have to go with what you know and trade the match accordingly.
Nishikori has a clear edge based on the head to heads and won both their 2010 matches in straight sets although both were on clay. Their only hard court match was almost 4 years ago and went to 3 sets.
Sweeting performs better in America and has won 5 in a row on home soil. He has however lost 4 of his last 5 when starting as underdog. Nishikori has won 10 of his last 11 matches at this venue.
I’ll be backing Nishikori from the start with half stake and adding the rest when he breaks. Sweeting can serve well but his serve can also be very unreliable. He has held his own serve just 65% over the last year.
Update: I had it right the first time! Nishikori had 2 break points in the first set but didn’t break. He lost the first set in a tight tie break. He didn’t actually lose serve throughout the whole match and won 6-7, 6-2, 6-4.
20:00 – Dodig v Tipsarevic
Rankings are 60 and 52. They haven’t played before.
Tipsarevic hasn’t been quite at his best over recent weeks and has talked about pain in his legs on his Twitter page.
Dodig is one of the form players of the season so far and has already taken a title ( the first of his career ).
They are both holding serve regularly although Tipsarevic had to save 13 break points in the third set of his last match.
I’m going with a lay of Tipsarevic from the start. I expect it to be a three setter to will hopefully be greening up after the first set.
Update: Another pick goes down in a tie break. Plenty of chances to get out of the lay with a small profit. Dodig crumbled in the second set.
Tipsarevic won 7-6, 6-1.