Wow they really messed up the Tennis Insight site. It was supposed to be an upgrade but it seems to take forever to find info that took seconds on the old site. Does anyone like the new layout? It reminds me of the new Paypal site which is horrible. Do they think the whole world is short sighted? Why is everything so big?
Anyway, onto today’s matches
12:00 – Kvitova v Petkovic
Petkovic leads the head to heads 4-3 but they haven’t played since 2011.
Kvitova has a much better record over the last 3 months winning 16 of her 22 matches compared to Petkovic’s 10 from 18.
Kvitova wins more points on her first serve and her service holds are significantly higher at over 78% for the last 3 months. The other main stats categories are much closer but show Kvitova stronger on return points won and she allows fewer holds by her opponents. Petkovic’s break point conversion rate is slightly better.
Kvitova didn’t have a great time at the WTA Finals in Singapore losing two of her three Round Robin matches and playing poorly. She managed a half decent display against Sharapova beating her in straight sets but it has to be said Sharapova’s form was well below par too.
Petkovic made a slow start in the Tournament of Champions and lost the opening set 6-0 to Suarez Navarro. Her winning the tournament looked very unlikely at that stage and she lost the match in straight sets. However against the odds she won her next three matches in straight sets to reach the final where she beat Pennetta in three sets.
Both players can be unpredictable and Kvitova’s SP of 1.27 looks low. If she plays her best tennis then is capable of blowing Petkovic off the court but backing at that price after her performances in Singapore is very brave. I will stay out for the first few games to see if Kvitova is serving well. That will be a good indication of her form.
I am looking for a higher price on Kvitova as long as she doesn’t appear to be having a nightmare.
13:30 – Safarova v Kerber
They have played just once before which was on an indoor hard court in 2012. Kerber won in straight sets.
For matches in the last 3 months Safarova has better stats on serve but it is Kerber who leads the other main categories.
Both have a losing record in tie breaks although Safarova did win 2 of her 6 tie breaks played compared to Kerber losing her only breaker.
Safarova reached the semi finals at Wimbledon and since then she has been very consistent with her only first round losses coming in Washington and Wuhan. Her last tournament saw her reach the semi finals in Moscow. her loss to Begu in three sets was a surprise.
Kerber hasn’t played since her third round loss in Beijing a little more than a month ago. Her season really started to show consistent results from May though the hard court season was consistent without being spectacular. of the two players she is the more likely to choke in the big moments of matches.
They start at evens and I am favouring Safarova for this one. Her serve is more likely to stand up to pressure if the match is close and I can see this one going the distance.
I will have part stake on Safarova from the start and will top up if she gets broken early.