French Open 2012, week 1 Saturday

So Britain starts a 4 day weekend for the Queen’s Jubilee celebrations. We have been invited to a street party and asked to bring alcohol, food, plates etc. In a neighbourhood like ours I’m surprised that there was no mention of taking a baseball bat. I think they are using it as a way to get people to come to them so they can mug them to save having to go out to find victims. I love my neighbours ūüôā

Lets trade some tennis instead.

 

Schiavone v Lepchenko:

Schiavone has found a little of her old form. When she won the French Open in 2010 she came from nowhere. Will she do the same this year? Highly unlikely but I said the same about Razzano beating Serena!

Schiavone’s price has come in 10 ticks over night to 1.48 . Just last month Lepchenko beat Schiavone in 3 sets on clay. Schiavone was in an awful run of form at the time and it really wasn’t a great surprise. In that tournament Lepchenko beat Peer and Medina Garrigues before losing to Radwanksa in the quarter final. This week she has knocked out Pervak and Jankovic in 3 sets.

Schiavone has lost 7 in a row when playing a left hander. She has won 15 of her last 16 matches at the French Open having reached the final last year as defending champion.

When Lepchenko won their last match in Madrid it went to 3 sets. Schiavone was so bad at times in that match that it was almost embarrassing. Even so it still went to 3 sets. ¬†Lepchenko won’t make it easy for her but as the Italian is now back to some sort of decent form you have to favour¬† Schiavone.

1.58 would have been worth a part stake back on her but not at 1.48 . I will be waiting for a higher price before getting involved. Both Lepchenko’s matches this week have gone to 3 sets but each time she has won the opening set so I am hopeful of another strong start from her today. An early break of Schiavone’s serve will probably give a price above evens as traders over react to it due to Lepchenko winning last time they played.

 

Giraldo v Murray:

All tennis players are playing with an injury or ailment of some sort. Whether its just blisters, a strained shoulder, back problems, neck problems or any others in an endless list they manage them with the help and advice from experts. Most of them we never hear about as the players accept it as part of the life of a tennis player. Others like Andy Murray draw attention to their injuries as he is a big girl.

Common sense would suggest that it isn’t a good idea to let your opponent know that you are suffering as it is likely to give them a boost. Maybe¬†still being ¬†attached to his mum’s apron strings means he craves sympathy. The fact that Murray, when faced with an interview, looks like a sulky child being made to speak to their parent’s dinner guests suggests he has been “mothered” for far too long.

In his last match he had back problems so apparently severe that his own camp were¬† telling him to quit. With Wimbledon just around the corner risking further damage seemed like insanity. Yet he continued. Nieminen had clearly expected his opponent to retire. The Finn couldn’t cope mentally and imploded losing the next 3 sets.

So if Murray wasn’t as injured as he appeared to be, why fake it? He doesn’t need to play stupid games to beat someone like Nieminen so you have to assume there was a genuine injury but his reaction to it made it seem a lot worse than it was. Maybe his pain theshold is that of an infant. Maybe he just has a pathetic need for sympathy. The fact is that he very rarely retires from matches.

He has said that he has no injury worries going into today’s match but the markets don’t believe him. His price is currently 1.38 but has been over 1.40 over night. Normally against Giraldo he shouldn’t be above 1.15 .

Giraldo dominated Tomic in the last round winning in straight sets. He beat Falla who can be a tough opponent on his day. He won in 4 sets.

They played in Barcelona on clay in April and Murray won 6-1, 6-2 starting as a 1.13 favourite.

Obviously a fit Murray would win this easily. I will place a small back at the start. If he starts well and seems ok that price will quickly drop. The cortisone injections should be able to get him through the match if required. This is definitely a match to watch live and be ready to get out if Murray starts his antics again. The market will react and could give us some great value once again.

 

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