10:00 – L Mayer v Benneteau
Rankings are 57 and 38. Head to heads are 2-1 to Mayer. He won their only clay court match in Madrid earlier this month. It was a very tight match(6-7, 7-5, 6-4)
Mayer starts at 1.78 on Betfair which is about right. He has had some great results over recent weeks and reached the semi final in Nice where he pushed Verdasco close in each set.
He wins 80% of his service games and has a very consistent first serve.
However he is up against a Frenchman. That in itself is hard enough on a French court but Benetteau is capable of playing some inspired tennis. His results haven’t been great recently though and he didn’t play in Nice last week.
Benneteau’s first serve percentage is higher than Mayer’s and he will need that serve to be working well to keep him in contention. He wins 74% of his service games.
On a neutral court I would have Mayer as a strong favourite but home advanatage is important.
Back Mayer on serve. If Benneteau is also holding well he can be backed on his own serve too.
12:00 – Garcia-Lopez v De Bakker
Rankings are 40 and 50. They haven’t played before.
Both players’ first serve percentages are over 60 and they win 74% and 75% respectively of games on their own serve.
Garcia-Lopez has played some solid tennis on the clay this season reaching the semi finals in Estoril.
De Bakker reached the semi finals in Barcelona by beating Tsonga in 3 sets.
Back Garcia-Lopez on serve.
15:00 – Murray v Chela
Rankings are 4 and 54. Head to heads are 5-1 to Murray.
Murray has won their last 5 matches with the last 2 being on clay.
I was going to recommend laying Murray from the start but having looked at the match scores for their last few matches Chela hasn’t even come close to taking a set. However if the Argentinian has a chance of getting a set then its probably the right time for him to try. Murray is below par and clay isn’t his favourite surface.
If you lay Murray from the start, don’t get too greedy. Hedge after the first break of serve. Murray is 1.11 currently so the liability is small.