French Open – Week 1, Thursday

Ok everyone has won a match at this stage so hopefully a lot of the dross has gone. Well, Baghdatis is still there. Oh and Querrey. Keeps it interesting 🙂

 

Florian Mayer plays Falla who knocked out Starace in straight sets. They have played twice before and Mayer won easily both times. The ony meeting on clay was in 2004 and so is pretty much irrelevent. Mayer is at 1.20 on Betfair which is way too low to be backing. Falla loves the clay and is certainly capable of troubling the German. Higher prices please or no bet for me.

Update: Mayer took the first but Falla won 4-6, 7-6, 6-1, 6-1.

 

Probably a better match for trading at 10am is Querrey v Ljubicic.  Querrey is supposedly terrible on cay but keeps sneaking these half decent performances in without actually winning. The excpetion to that, apart from Anderson’s retirement, was Kohlschreiber’s complete capitulation in the first round. Ljubicic started very badly against Devverman and looked like losing the opening set put pulled it back right at the end. He found his serve and controlled the rest of the match. Ljubicic starts at 1.67 on Betfair. This could be a close one although I have to favour Ljubicic. Querrey will have gained a lot of confidence from his win and I feel he has to take the opening set to keep the momentum going in his direction. Half stake back on Ljubicic from the start. Not full stakes as he could make another bad start and I’d expect Querreys serve to be at its best in the first set before Ljubicic works it out.

Update: Ljubicic won 7-6, 6-4, 6-4.

 

Fish takes on Haase in a match he will be expecting to take in 3 or 4 sets. A slight worry over Haase’s ankle injury although it didn’t seem to bother him in his straight sets win over Gimeno-Traver. Fish has improved his consistency over the last few months  and has been rewarded with a place in the top 10 in the world. Haase is in great form and is serving well but I don’t see him winning this one. I’m on Fish from the start. Please only do the same if you have your strategy in place for if the trade moves against you.

Update: Haase put up a good fight in the first but Fish won 7-6, 6-2, 6-1.

 

Verdasco looks low at 1.20 against Malisse although if the Spaniard plays like he did in the Monaco match its hard to see Malisse having much of a chance.

Update: Verdasco won 6-4, 3-6, 7-6, 6-1.

 

Baghdatis v Leonardo Mayer.  Baggy got the job done in the first round against Gil and at similar starting odds of around 1.70 . They have only played once before which was on clay last year and Mayer won in 3 sets. The trouble with Baghdatis is that he can’t be relied upon when your hard earned cash is involved. I doubt this will be straight sets although I expect Baghdatis to win eventually. I will not be taking a position from the start and will monitor the match. Ideally it will be a close first set and Mayer takes it but I’ll check the stats after the first set. I’m sure it will be discussed in the chatroom!

Update: Very tight match sets with Mayer winning 7-5, 6-4, 7-6.

 

Chela looks like a good price at 1.50 against Anderson. Chela dealt well with another big server John Isner last week and I don’t see him having much trouble with this one.

Update: This was the match I was most certain of before it started! Had some work to do after the firsts et but was ( thankfully) out of the match after the second set. Chela won 3-6, 6-3, 6-4, 4-6, 6-2.

 

Chardy takes on Simon. Chardy played well in his first round win over Dimitrov. I was surprised to see Russell take a set from Gilles Simon. Chardy can be a tough opponent when he gets some momentum going but I have to go with the class player here. 3 or 4 sets to Simon and I’ll be backing with half from the start and hoping to top up a little higher up the ladder in the first set.

Update: Another favourite who started badly! Chardy completely outplayed Simon in the early part of the match but Simon came through 4-6, 6-4, 6-1, 6-4.

    Trading Guide

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