French Open – Week 1, Tuesday

With lots of games on at the same time it can be difficult to choose which one to trade. As you get more experienced its a little easier to pick matches that suit your own style of trading.  Rather than jump from one to another to another its often best to choose a match and stick with it and prhaps monitor the scores of another 1 or 2 to check for opportunities.

 

Ljubicic takes on Devvarman. Since beating Garcia-Lopez in Serbia Devvarman has lost all three of his matches. Ljubicic has increased his consistency over recent months and has become a tricky opponent for even the top players however his loss to Nadal in the Monte Carlo quarter final may have brought him back down to earth as he has won just a single match since. (although 2 of his three matches were against fish and Gilles Simon). Neither player has a good record in Grand Slam events but I have to go with Ljubicic as he is in a different league. On the day though anything can happen so half stakes on Ljubicic from the start and manage the trades from there. If he trades higher I will add to the back.

Update: Very slow start from Ljubicic and he was soon a break down. He broke back late in the set and then broke again. After that Devvarman never really looked like getting back into the match. Ljubicic won 6-4, 6-3, 6-4.

 

Melzer is back after his strange retirement against Mayer in Rome.  This time he faces Andreas Beck from Germany who reached the semi finals of the Rome Challenger and the Monza Challenger events. They have never played on clay although their previous 2 matches both went to Melzer on hard courts. Melzer reached the semi finals of Roland Garros last year so he certainly won’t want to go out in the first round. He should be motivated but what about all his injuries and ailments? Back problems in Rome, racing heartbeat before that, elbow problems, knee problems blah blah blah. More issues than Murray.  There are better matches due to start at the same time so I may put a small back on Melzer and monitor it.

Update: No drama today. Melzer won 6-3, 6-4, 6-2.

 

Volandri seems a little short priced at 1.31 against Frenchman Clement. Clement’s form hasn’t been good at all recently but the French underdogs have done ok at least in the early part of matches and he certainly has the potential to trouble Volandri. Neither player has the heart for  a 5 set match so if it goes the distance it could resemble a scene from Rocky.

Update: 4 setter with Clement winning 6-3, 1-6, 7-6, 6-4. Adriaaaann!

 

Kohlschreiber v Querrey: If it wasn’t impossible for both these players to throw away the match they would find a way. Neither performs well on the big stage. Move along. Nothing to see here.

Update: Kohlschreiber won the first set then Querrey took over to win 3-6, 6-1, 6-2, 6-4.

 

Anderson could have some problems against Mahut. Mahut plays infront of his home crowd and has been performing well on the Challener tour regularly reaching the latter stages of tournaments. It may also be a good omen that Betfair have a photo of Gasquet on Mahut’s profile. Neither man loves playing on clay so home advantage gives Mahut the edge for me. Both big servers though so it could be tight.

Update: Anderson won 6-4, 6-4, 6-7, 6-3.

 

Verdasco and Monaco: I was surprised to see that Monaco leads the head to head here at 7-2  (5-1 on clay ). Verdasco’s form has been a little better. He reached the final in Estoril but then lost in the first round to Lu which was Lu’s first ever win on clay I believe. It isn’t unusual for a first round loss after a good run the previous week. Monaco has been playing typical claycourt tennis lately and it has proved quite successful although I am concerned at his collapse against Mayer at the weekend losing the second set 6-0. This should be a really tight match and I don’t think Verdasco should be as low as 1.60 at the start especially considering the head to head. I think he will battle through though but I will be following the match for a few games before getting involved.

Update: Verdasco won 6-2, 7-5, 4-6, 6-4.

    Trading Guide

1 thought on “French Open – Week 1, Tuesday”

  1. I would give Monaco the edge, he is able to fight well with Verdasco and i back 50% before start and would add 50% after if odds go up.

    I can really see Monaco going through, cause lately Verdasco always is in troubles for me, while Juan is improving.

    LAY Verdasco @1.63 for half and will see it… 😉

    Paul, what do you think about some very cheap lays ? nadal, murray, azarenka, sharapova… all lay 1,03-04, so cheap that “must-be-taken” ? chances small but always.

Comments are closed.