14:00 – Stosur v Schiavone
Rankings are 7 and 17. Head to heads are 4-1 to Stosur.(2-0 on clay)
Stosur has beaten Henin, Serena Williams and overpowered Jankovic to reach this final.
Schiavone won a tight first set against Dementieva before her opponent retired. He has beaten Wozniacki and Kirilenko to get to the final.
Schiavone is having a good season and won the WTA event in Barcelona in April.
Stosur is the form player though and I expect her to win this in straight sets.
1.23 is a little low to back from the start but is probably a realistic price. You could wait for Schiavone to get a break so you can back Stosur at a better price but it could be a long wait.
Update : Hands up who was surprised by THAT one!!
Shiavone came out with the plan to be aggressive. Stosur started the match serving well but it seemed as though the occasion got to her.
Schiavone took the first set. In the second Stosur seemed to be getting on top and took a 4-1 lead. However Schiavone broke back and held serve to draw level. The set moved to a tie break with both players holding well.
Schiavone was the one who held it together and won the tie break easily.
I had backed Stosur from the start but at 4-4 I got out of the trade with a loss. I had been getting out of the trade and then getting back in as I expected Stosur to get the break. She didnt so I had a £60-ish red by the end of the first set.I managed to lay Stosur when Schiavone had a 15-40 opportunity and the Italian just held on for the break.
In the second I expected Stosur to come back and when she went into a 4-1 lead I was green of about £245 on her. The problem I had was when Schiavone broke back. As the set was now back on serve I have learned from experience that you need to have your green on the first set winner. If that player gets a break in the second set then you can be left with a large liability on them and a very small price to try to back them.
This is even more important when the set goes to a tie break as it did today. I held the green on Schiavone. If Stosure has won the tie break then I would have had some work to do but there was another set to go. I would still have been in the match. Obviously if Schiavone took the tie break ( as she did) then I would have no time at all to move the liability/green around.
I had another option which was to hedge for a guaranteed loss of well over £300.
So I had a liability of over £700 which is less than ideal but its a way of thinking that has served me well more often than not.